Oklahoma Football lands inside the top 12 in ESPN's SP+ rankings, which is a tempo-and opponent-adjusted measure of college football efficiency that serves as a predictive tool rather than a résumé-based ranking like the AP Poll
ESPN’s Bill Connelly released his initial SP+ rankings for the 2026 college football season, projecting every one of the 138 FBS teams based on the most sustainable and predictable aspects of the sport.
SP+ is a tempo-and opponent-adjusted measure of college football efficiency that serves as a predictive tool rather than a résumé-based ranking like the AP Poll. These early projections help set the stage for the upcoming campaign by evaluating where programs stand heading into spring practices and fall camp.
Connelly builds the preseason SP+ formula around four primary factors, weighted by their historical predictiveness: returning production (adjusted for transfers and attrition), recent history (a multi-year measure of program health), recent recruiting (including high school classes and portal additions, now weighted lightly at just 1-2%), and coaching change effects (comparing a team’s prior output to a 20-year baseline to forecast bounces or regressions). The model has proven remarkably accurate over time at forecasting sustainable improvement or decline.
At the top of the 2026 projections sit Ohio State (No. 1), Oregon (No. 2), Notre Dame (No. 3), Georgia (No. 4), Indiana (No. 5), and Texas (No. 6). The Big Ten claims three of the top five spots, but the SEC once again reigns as the deepest and strongest conference overall with an average SP+ rating of 14.5, the nation’s best.
The league also leads in offensive efficiency (32.8, No. 1) and defensive efficiency (18.6, No. 1). Twelve SEC teams sit inside the national top 26, and none rank worse than 54th, underscoring the conference’s remarkable parity and talent density even as schedules expand to nine league games.
Oklahoma finds itself squarely in that elite SEC mix, checking in at No. 12 overall with a projected SP+ rating of 17.2. That places the Sooners sixth in the conference. Their projected breakdown shows a balanced but defense-heavy profile: offense at 31.6 (27th nationally), defense at 14.7 (10th nationally), and special teams at 0.4 (33rd nationally).
The numbers reflect a program that has stabilized in the SEC after last year’s rise, with elite defensive efficiency expected to anchor the unit while the offense works to climb into the upper echelon.
Connelly’s analysis highlights how Oklahoma’s ascent, along with improvements from Texas A&M and Vanderbilt, reshaped the SEC landscape in 2025.
He wrote: “The SEC’s 2025 disappointments (LSU, Alabama, Tennessee, Missouri, Florida, South Carolina). With the rise of teams like Oklahoma, Texas A&M and Vanderbilt last season, others in the SEC had to fall, and the six teams I just listed went from a combined 55-23 in 2024 (with an average SP+ ranking of 13.5) to 42-36 (34.0). Granted, those 2025 averages are dragged down by more precipitous falls from Florida and South Carolina, but five of the six saw their records regress, all six slipped in SP+, two changed head coaches, and three others changed at least one coordinator. All six are projected higher than where Schlabach placed them, though it will be virtually impossible for all six to actually improve their records as the SEC moves to nine-game conference schedules.”
The Sooners are no longer the new kid on the SEC block under fifth-year head coach Brent Venables. They are a projected top-12 program with one of the league’s better defenses and a manageable path to double-digit wins if the offense finds consistency under the current staff.
Spring practices will offer the first real clues about quarterback play, offensive line continuity, and how new transfers mesh with returning talent.
For Oklahoma, however, the message is steadier: the foundation is solid, the defense is elite, and the program sits among the national elite once again.
With the full 138-team list now public, these SP+ numbers will serve as the baseline for every preview, power ranking, and playoff projection through the summer. For the Sooners, No. 12 is validation that the program’s upward trajectory in the SEC is real and sustainable.