Sooners’ late-season surge has them on the brink of a top-8 seed and a home playoff game — but Alabama’s SEC title path remains the biggest threat
For the second consecutive week, the Oklahoma Sooners remain firmly entrenched at No. 8 in both the AP Top 25 and the Coaches Poll, a testament to the growing respect they’ve earned during a late-season surge.
The latest rankings were released Sunday following OU’s gritty 17-6 home victory over No. 22 Missouri — the Sooners’ third consecutive win over a ranked opponent (Tennessee, Alabama, and now Missouri).
That streak has vaulted Oklahoma into rare territory: they are currently the highest-ranked two-loss team in the country, sitting ahead of ninth-ranked Notre Dame and tenth-ranked Alabama — two blue-blood programs with massive brand value and tradition.
The Irish, who face woeful 4-7 Stanford this Saturday, would need an extraordinarily lopsided victory — and perhaps some help from poll voters with short memories — to leapfrog Oklahoma even if both teams win.
History suggests that simply isn’t happening.
The real threat to OU’s grip on a top-eight seed (and the precious first-round home game that comes with it) is Alabama.
Despite losing head-to-head to the Sooners 23-21 in Tuscaloosa just eight days ago, the Crimson Tide still control their path to the SEC Championship Game.
If Alabama beats Auburn in the Iron Bowl and wins the SEC Title in Atlanta, the committee could justify elevating the Tide back into the top eight on the strength of an extra marquee win and a conference title — potentially bumping Oklahoma to the road for the first round of the 12-team playoff.
Advanced metrics remain stubbornly skeptical of the Sooners.
ESPN’s Football Power Index moved Oklahoma up only one spot to No. 14 this week, still nine spots behind Alabama despite the head-to-head result.
The FPI has consistently undervalued OU all season, a frustration for Sooner fans who point to road wins at Tennessee and Alabama, plus the current three-game ranked win streak.
This Saturday’s regular-season finale against LSU in Norman looms large.
The Tigers, unranked in both human polls after a disappointing year, nevertheless check in at No. 25 in the FPI and still possess dangerous skill talent.
ESPN’s Playoff Predictor currently gives Oklahoma a 78% chance to make the field (8th-highest nationally) and an 80% chance to host a first-round game. A victory over LSU pushes those numbers to 99% and 93%, respectively.
In ESPN’s most probable bracket, the Sooners land as the No. 5 seed, hosting No. 12 North Texas at Gaylord Family Oklahoma Memorial Stadium, with a quarterfinal date against fellow SEC foe Georgia awaiting the winner.
Brent Venables’ team has answered every challenge, making this a November to remember.
One more win against LSU, and the Sooners will not only be in the playoff — they’ll get to open it in front of the Palace on the Prairie, exactly where they believe they belong.