Bracket expert Jerry Palm projects the Sooners as a playoff lock, citing a veteran roster and returning star power as Norman prepares for a high-stakes season opener
Oklahoma’s road to the College Football Playoff starts tonight in Norman against UTEP, and at least one longtime bracket-watcher already has the Sooners projected to get there.
Jerry Palm, formerly of CBS Sports and now of Palm Brackets, joined Sooners Roundtable publisher Tyler Jones on The Jones Report this week and predicted Oklahoma will make the 12-team field as the No. 10 seed.
In Palm’s projection, the Sooners would go on the road in the first round to face No. 7 Indiana. The winner of that game would move on to the Peach Bowl against No. 2 Georgia.
That is a difficult path, but it is also a sign that Palm sees Oklahoma as one of the teams capable of living in the playoff conversation again after last year’s breakthrough.
Palm’s confidence starts with the roster. “Oklahoma returns a lot: the quarterback and a lot of other players.”
That is the simplest way to frame it, and it is hard to argue. John Mateer is back after a season that showed both the upside and the cost of losing him for any stretch. The defense returns the core of a unit that ranked among the best in the country a year ago. Isaiah Sategna is back. Key pieces on the front seven are back. Oklahoma does not feel like a team starting over. It feels like a team trying to take the next step with most of the important pieces still in place.
The schedule is still the problem, or at least the variable that can wreck a projection in a hurry. Oklahoma plays six ranked teams, with five of those coming in SEC play. Palm did not pretend that is ideal. He also did not treat it like some unique burden only the Sooners have to carry.
“When you play in that league, your conference schedule is going to be a challenge, and you're going to have ranked teams on it. That's just kinda how it goes. It's really going to be a function of which opponents you are going to get in the league.”
That is the reality of the SEC. Everybody wants the brand, the exposure, and the path to the playoff. The tradeoff is a weekly gauntlet that can wear teams down before December even arrives.
Oklahoma learned that the hard way last year in the best and worst sense. The Sooners went 4-0 in November, won on the road at Alabama and Tennessee, and still earned a playoff spot. Then they ran into Alabama again in Norman and saw the season end in the first round after blowing a 17-0 lead.
That history hangs over any 2026 projection. Making the field is no longer the surprise. Doing something with the opportunity is the next standard. Palm having Oklahoma as a No. 10 seed means he expects the Sooners to win enough of the hard games to stay inside the bracket without necessarily running the table or winning the league outright.
A first-round road game at Indiana would be a tough draw. A potential Peach Bowl matchup with Georgia after that would be even tougher. But those are playoff problems, and Oklahoma spent a long time just trying to get back to that kind of stage.
There is also a practical side to Palm’s thinking. Oklahoma’s defense gives it a floor. If Mateer stays healthy, the offense has enough around him to create a ceiling. The offensive line and run game still have to prove they can be reliable, especially with the early questions on the interior and the need for more consistent production on the ground. Those issues do not automatically knock a team out of the playoff race in a 12-team format, but they do decide whether a team is dangerous in December or just happy to be there again.
Tonight’s opener against UTEP will not answer the playoff questions. It is still the first step. Oklahoma needs a clean night, some early rhythm on offense, and another reminder that the defense can set the tone immediately. The harder tests come soon enough, starting with Michigan on the road and continuing through a league schedule that leaves very little margin for error.
Palm has been doing this long enough to know September projections are fragile. Teams get hurt. Closely contested games bounce the wrong way. League standings shift fast. Still, his bracket says Oklahoma is good enough to be in the field again, good enough to land a seed in the back half of the playoff, and good enough to be taken seriously when the conversation turns to who can survive in December.
That feels about right for where this program is. The Sooners are past the point of needing to prove they belong in the SEC. The next step is proving they can come back from a playoff appearance with more than just another invitation. Palm’s bracket gives them that invitation. The rest still has to be earned on the field.
You can hear the full conversation with Jerry Palm on this week’s edition of The Jones Report, available now on Apple, Spotify, and all major podcast platforms. Subscribe to the show for weekly Sooners' content. Enjoyed this week's episode? Leave a five-star review!
