College football insider Brett McMurphy projects Brent Venables’ Sooners as the tenth seed in the CFP, forecasting a grit-fueled return to the postseason and a high-stakes road clash against the Indiana Hoosiers
On3’s veteran insider Brett McMurphy recently released his latest look ahead to the 2026 season, and for Oklahoma Sooners fans still smarting from a strong 2025 campaign, the news is encouraging: McMurphy projects the Sooners to return to the 12-team College Football Playoff.
McMurphy slots Oklahoma as the No. 10 seed in his bracket, sending them on the road to face No. 7 Indiana in the first round. This projection implies a strong 10-2 regular season for the Sooners under head coach Brent Venables, positioning them as one of the top teams outside the automatic qualifiers.
A 10 seed feels underwhelming, however, as the Sooners have one of the toughest schedules in the country, and should be rewarded for it in the playoff seeding with a home game.
However, McMurphy’s bracket highlights the depth at the top of the sport, with power programs like Miami, Ohio State, Georgia, and Notre Dame projected to lock up the top seeds.
In a 12-team field where five conference champions earn automatic bids, the at-large spots become fiercely contested. Oklahoma’s inclusion as a high at-large seed speaks to McMurphy’s belief in their talent and coaching, even if the road gets tough immediately.
According to the projection, McMurphy has the Sooners falling in that opening-round matchup against Indiana. Should Oklahoma pull off the upset, however, they would advance to the Rose Bowl to take on No. 2 Ohio State.
The Sooners have yet to win a playoff game in program history, and a first round playoff victory with a spot in the Rose Bowl would be a huge step forward.
This projection comes after Oklahoma went 10-3 in the previous season but fell short in the first round at home.
The Sooners have returning production at quarterback, skill positions, and defensive improvements as reasons for confidence. The transfer portal and high school recruiting classes have been kind to Norman, giving Venables the depth needed to compete week in and week out in the SEC.
McMurphy’s track record as one of the most plugged-in voices in the sport lends weight to his take. His inclusion of Oklahoma signals belief that the Sooners are trending upward after last year's first CFP appearance under Venables.
Brett McMurphy’s Full CFP Projections
First Round (Dec. 18-19)
- No. 12 North Dakota State at No. 5 Oregon
- No. 9 Texas Tech at No. 8 Texas A&M
- No. 11 Penn State at No. 6 Texas
- No. 10 Oklahoma at No. 7 Indiana
Quarterfinals
- Fiesta Bowl (Dec. 30): No. 3 Notre Dame vs. No. 6 Texas
- Cotton Bowl (Jan. 1): No. 4 Georgia vs. No. 5 Oregon
- Rose Bowl (Jan. 1): No. 2 Ohio State vs. No. 7 Indiana (or winner of Oklahoma matchup)
- Peach Bowl (Jan. 1): No. 1 Miami vs. No. 8 Texas A&M
Semifinals
- Orange Bowl (Jan. 14): No. 1 Miami vs. No. 4 Georgia
- Sugar Bowl (Jan. 15): No. 2 Ohio State vs. No. 3 Notre Dame
National Championship
- Las Vegas: No. 1 Miami vs. No. 3 Notre Dame
McMurphy sees Oklahoma back in the mix for national title contention in 2026. Whether they host a first-round game or hit the road as a 10 seed, the opportunity exists.
Now it’s up to Venables and his team to turn the projection into reality. With the talent returning and the program stabilizing, 2026 could mark the beginning of Oklahoma’s resurgence as a consistent playoff threat.