Penn State should be favored in 10 of their 12 games this year, but is that correct?
Penn State's season is going to be a story of three contests: USC, Michigan, and Washington.
Penn State got an incredible draw of Big Ten opponents, and they should be big favorites in just about every game outside of those three. Now, if they win two of those three games, they will be a Playoff team. If they sweep them, they are going to be in the conversation to make the Big Ten Championship game.
Those statements are making a lot of assumptions, and there will definitely be a couple of surprise teams that pop up in the Big Ten. Regardless, the schedule is favorable. In the first three weeks, Penn State should have zero problems with Marshall, Temple, and Buffalo.
Then, Big Ten play opens up with Wisconsin and Northwestern, which should be a couple of wins before welcoming USC to Beaver Stadium in mid-October for what will be a marquee matchup in all of College Football.
After that game, there is no rest for the Nittany Lions as they then hit the road to take on the Michigan Wolverines, who will likely be ranked at that time as well. After the trip to the Big House, Penn State has a major trap game against Purdue before heading out west to play Washington.
Once they get home from Washington, they will finish with Minnesota, Rutgers, and Maryland to finish the season.
There are a ton of winnable games on the schedule, and Zach Seyko of the Locked on Podcast Network released his hypothetical lines for the entire season, and it looks like he nailed it.
The only two games on the calendar that Penn State is an underdog in are at Michigan by 4.5 and Washington by 3.5, while the USC game at home is nearly a pick 'em.
Where I disagree with this is that I actually believe that Purdue is more of a trap game than both Northwestern and Wisconsin. I think that anytime the "W" shows up on campus, it commands respect, no matter what, and then Northwestern has some pretty serious momentum heading into this year.
Purdue slots in after Michigan and before the trip to Washington. This would be the easiest game to look beyond, and Penn State simply can't do it.
In the hypothetical world where the lines are correct, Penn State posts a 10-2 record, and even though they will have a weaker schedule, they will be tough to keep out of the playoffs.
Sneak one of the games against Washington or Michigan and they will be in business.
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