Is Penn State's Over Under Win Total Too Low, Too High, or Just Right?

Penn State enters the 2026 season with a new coach, a new quarterback, basically a new team, and the fourth-highest projected win total in the Big Ten at 8.5 wins, according to BetMGM.

I'm here to tell you that that number is actually too low.

The Nittany Lions have actually gotten a perfect storm of events for this upcoming season. Since the Big Ten has grown to 18 teams, there is no continuity across the conference for equal scheduling.

Certainly, no one is going to shed a tear for Ohio State, but the Buckeyes caught the short end of the stick by getting five ranked Big Ten opponents next year, including two of the best in Indiana and Oregon.

Penn State, on the other hand, got the benefit of only having two ranked Big Ten opponents, one of which they will get to face at home in Happy Valley.

The rest of their schedule is going to be filled with very winnable games. There is an argument to be had that Penn State will be favored in 10 or 11 of its 12 games this year. 

That's not meant to indicate that the Nittany Lions will be a powerhouse, but what it does indicate is that their schedule is manageable and their roster is going to be good enough to just get wins.

When you look at the schedule as a whole, in weeks 1-5. Penn State has three warm-up games against Marshall, Temple, and Buffalo before starting Big Ten play with Wisconsin and Northwestern. No one would be shocked with a 5-0 start.

Then, in the second quadrant of the season, they host USC, hit the road to Michigan, and then host Purdue. A 3-0 run in this section of the schedule seems a bit of a stretch, but would anyone be surprised about a 2-1 section? 

The last four games are at Washington, home against Minnesota and Rutgers, before a home game against Maryland. Again, if Penn State has one or even two losses here, that still gets them to 9 wins at the lowest. 

I think that Penn State's line should be at 9.5, and even at 9.5, I personally would still lean towards the over. 

Just as easily as I could see Penn State finishing 11-1, last year proved that a total disaster is on the table. I think the former is more likely than the ladder and more than 8.5 wins seems like a lock.

At least that's the way that I see it.

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