Penn State Likely Has No Chance to Make March Madness, Even in Perfect Outcome

It's unfortunate that Penn State's football season is nearly finished, but hopefully, the basketball team can at least give us something to talk about for a couple of months. 

In the first couple of weeks of the season, Penn State has no excuse for not being a decent team. 

Beyond playing Pittsburgh and Memphis, there's no real reason Penn State can't start this season on the right foot. 

I'd even go so far as to say Penn State has a chance to beat Pittsburgh, although over the past couple of years we've seen how hard it is to trust this team. In a sense, something similar can be said for Pittsburgh.

But the question for Penn State isn't really what it does during the non-conference slate. 

I can argue that this non-conference slate is among the worst in college basketball, especially for a program in the power ranks. 

Outside of Memphis and Pittsburgh, Penn State's schedule is embarrassing, with Mercyhurst, New Haven, Albany, a brutal Canisius team in the MAAC, and some other terrible teams. 

As for the Big Ten, Penn State will be challenged. Taking on teams like Illinois, Ohio State, Michigan State, Purdue, Michigan, and UCLA, among others, won't be easy.

The question for Penn State is whether it can do enough to win some of those games and have an opportunity to sneak into the NCAA Tournament, which has expanded.

“Mike Rhoades decided to go the veteran route after handing the keys to Kayden Mingo, the highest-ranked recruit in program history, in 2025-26. If Josh Reed gets eligible to fit in on the wing between a European-heavy front court with Roko Prkacin and Ivan Juric, and a transfer-heavy backcourt of Jay Rodgers and Robert Blums, maybe the Nittany Lions could threaten for a spot in the expanded NCAA Tournament field, but that’s unlikely.

“Northwestern and Rutgers, meanwhile, should keep Penn State company in the basement of the Big Ten; Rutgers, still licking its wounds from a big swing gone wrong in 2024-25 with Dylan Harper and Ace Bailey, and Northwestern, finally exiting a fruitful era that began with Boo Buie and ended with Nick Martinelli’s final season of eligibility last year,” Josh Yourish wrote.

Even with the expanded NCAA Tournament, I can't see Penn State making the tournament. 

I'd love to be wrong, but until this team shows us anything, it's better to assume it won't be the team anybody is hoping for. 

Penn State is clearly dealing with some behind-the-scenes money issues for this program, and unfortunately, the results have shown it.