A new coach, transfer portal haul, and a manageable schedule fuel optimism for a 10-win season. Can Penn State defy expectations?
Penn State had a lot go against them this offseason.
Despite firing James Franklin in October, the Nittany Lions had an elongated national coaching search. The program whiffed on several head coaching candidates before convincing Matt Campbell to leave Iowa State for State College in December.
By the time Campbell joined Penn State, it was too late for him to salvage the high school recruiting class for 2026. Instead, Campbell did what he could in the transfer portal, bringing 23 players over from ISU.
Campbell will hope he can develop this patchwork roster into a contender. Fortunately for PSU, the team has a favorable schedule.
During his show on Sunday, Josh Pate argued Penn State could win 10 games because of the schedule.
“I want to talk to you about Penn State because Penn State, Penn State has an over-under win total of 9.5," Pate said. "It's year one though, new coaching staff, a lot of roster churn, right?
"Well, the coach that's coming in there churned a lot of his old roster in there, and the schedule is workable. I lean over 9.5 wins for Penn State. What a world in which we live.”
Pate thinks PSU's biggest obstacles will be USC, Michigan and Washington. Those games could decide if the Nittany Lions make the College Football Playoff in Campbell's first season.
“There's no Oregon here. There's no Ohio State. There's no Indiana," Pate said. "I think they're going to be able to win ten games this year.
"So, I leaned pretty solidly Penn State over nine and a half. Now, I've got to balance it out with an under, and for that, we go to Illinois.”
Campbell always got the best out of Iowa State during his time with the program. The Cyclones upset a lot of top-tier programs.
However, his teams failed to win some big games like the Big 12 championship in 2024, that would have put ISU in the CFP.
Penn State has better resources than what Campbell had at Ames. But the key will be for Campbell to eventually beat elite programs in the Big Ten like Ohio State, Oregon and Indiana.