A new coach, 23 transfers, and a baffling prediction: Penn State faces a wild 2026 season where 9 wins might not be enough.
The Penn State Nittany Lions enter the upcoming season with nothing but uncertainty about what the team will look like under first-year head coach Matt Campbell.
Not that preseason rankings matter much, as evidenced by PSU having the No. 2 ranking entering Week 1 of the 2025 season.
Penn State is bringing 23 transfers from Iowa State. While they're familiar with Campbell, those players will be making a huge transition from playing in the Big 12 to playing in the Big Ten.
The saving grace for PSU could be its favorable schedule. The Nittany Lions will not play Oregon, Indiana, or Ohio State.
Tom Fornelli of CBS Sports has a stance prediction for PSU's 2026 campaign. He suggested the team could finish 9-3 and still not beat a team with a winning record.
"Don't worry, Penn State fans! You might still finish 9-3 even if this comes true!" Fornelli wrote. "Have you seen Penn State's schedule this year? There are road games against Michigan and Wisconsin, as well as a home game against USC (White Out plz).
"Outside of that, there's nothing that should scare anybody. Minnesota might be the most difficult game left. Also, I think Minnesota will get to a bowl, and earlier I said Minnesota would pull off an upset this season. *whistles to self*"
Fornelli's prediction is somewhat in the middle of where Brad Crawford thinks the Nittany Lions could finish. He thinks the best-case scenario would be for PSU to go 11-1. Worst-case scenario, Campbell finished 7-5 in his first season at State College.
Honestly, a 9-3 season would feel like a win for Penn State, even if they didn't beat a winning team. The Nittany Lions wouldn't have lost a game they should have won if that were the case.
With that being said, PSU didn't fire James Franklin and bring in Campbell just to win games it should. Campbell needs to win games against elite competition.
Maybe PSU can eventually get to that point, but it doesn't seem like this roster has the resources to compete with the big boys in the baddest conference in college football.