Sep 29, 2026 12:00 AM
Saturday in Happy Valley revealed the quiet truth that everyone was avoiding, that can't be avoided any longer.
Saturday in Happy Valley was a shocking dose of reality for the Penn State Nittany Lions program that everyone wanted to avoid for as long as they possibly could.
I labeled the game against Penn State as the biggest test of Matt Campbell's career as the Nittany Lions head coach because it was the first time facing a real opponent as the Penn State head coach.
The Penn State fanbase was fine with the first three weeks, but no one actually bought in until they saw what happened this week. What they witnessed was a reality that everyone avoided so far in the Campbell era, but cannot anymore.
Two things can be true here, and I think that they are. Matt Campbell is a first-class person and is absolutely a culture resetter in terms of a coach. He is also a very average football coach; that's not me saying it, that's what his numbers and resume say.
Campbell quickly flipped the Toledo program around over four seasons. He compiled a 35-15 record, which is a fantastic record in the MAC. It was certainly good enough for him to get the Iowa State job, and when he got to Ames, he was just fine.
His career record was 72-55, which is good for a win percentage of just 56.7 percent over a 10-year sample size.
I'd even throw that if the context showed that it took two or three years to start winning, but that wasn't the case.
It was a slow start, followed by a couple of average years in the middle, followed by one horrible year that led to one great season, only to finish with an average year. It was not a consistent trajectory at all for Campbell, and in his time at Iowa State, he only had one double-digit winning season.
The uneasy reality is that Penn State hired an average head football coach.
Again, this isn't my opinion; it is simply what his resume says. It doesn't take away from the fact that he is an A+ human being, but it does take away the fact that Penn State may have made a lateral or even backwards move from James Franklin.
I will never say that they shouldn't have moved on from Franklin, but when they did, they should have had their guy circled. They were unable to get one of the two studs, Bob Chesney or Jon Sumrall, so they had to settle for Campbell.
There was a reason he was available so late in the hiring process.
Now, the Nittany Lions are staring down a game that they simply must win against a nasty Northwestern team that smells blood in the water. a
It's an uphill battle for the Nittany Lions, and they have to stop the bleeding immediately, or else it could get really uncomfortable really quickly.
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