ESPN's preseason model views the Mustangs as one of the ACC's top teams entering 2026, with a schedule that offers a major opportunity late in the season.
One week before SMU takes the stage at ACC Media Day on July 17, preseason projections are beginning to roll in. ESPN released its preseason Football Power Index rankings Thursday, and the Mustangs earned a spot in the top 25.
SMU checks in at No. 24 nationally in the FPI, which makes it the third-highest ranked ACC team behind Miami at No. 7 and Clemson at No. 19.
The FPI is not a traditional poll. ESPN describes it as a predictive model built to measure team strength using talent, returning production, recruiting, schedule strength and 20,000 season simulations. A preseason ranking inside the top 25 reflects where the model believes SMU stands as it enters its third season as a Power Four program.
The ACC picture is worth watching because Miami enters the season as the conference's highest-ranked team and one of the favorites to compete for a national title. Clemson sits inside the top 20 as Dabo Swinney looks to push the Tigers back into the College Football Playoff conversation. SMU rounds out the conference's top tier, giving the Mustangs a strong preseason foundation entering August.
The schedule will determine whether SMU climbs higher. Notre Dame is the only opponent ranked inside the FPI top 25, and the Fighting Irish check in at No. 3 nationally.
The Nov. 21 trip to South Bend stands out as the biggest game on the schedule. A road win over a top-three team late in the season would strengthen SMU's College Football Playoff résumé more than any other result this fall.
The rest of the schedule also presents challenges. Florida State, Louisville, Virginia and Virginia Tech all rank inside the FPI's top 40. If SMU wins those games while avoiding costly losses, it should remain in the ACC title race entering November.
Kevin Jennings returns at quarterback after leading the Mustangs to a 6-2 conference record last season. SMU enters the year with one of the ACC's highest preseason projections, and the next step is turning those expectations into results once the season begins.
