The Mustangs debut against a battle-tested Florida State squad eager to prove rankings don’t matter. With SMU rebuilding its playmakers, Tallahassee looms as a dangerous opening-night trap.
Being ranked inside the top 20 usually comes with the expectation that an unranked opponent is the one with something to prove.
SMU's trip to Florida State on Monday night isn't shaping up quite that way.
The No. 19 Mustangs enter their season opener with far more national respect than the Seminoles, who sit outside the AP Top 25. Yet when the two meet in Tallahassee, SMU will walk into Doak Campbell Stadium as only a slight favorite.
The line has hovered around a field goal in SMU's favor, meaning the possibility of Florida State pulling off an upset isn't some far-fetched scenario attached to the rankings. The matchup is expected to be close.
There are legitimate reasons for that.
Florida State already has 60 minutes of football behind it after beating New Mexico State 34-17 in Week 0. SMU, meanwhile, will be making its season debut in Tallahassee.
The Seminoles also have some intriguing pieces. Auburn and Stanford transfer Ashton Daniels completed 17 of 27 passes for 202 yards with a touchdown and an interception in his Florida State debut. Ousmane Kromah ran for 115 yards, helping the Seminoles finish with 217 yards on the ground.
Still … the final score concealed some of what should make SMU feel pretty good about this matchup.
New Mexico State threw for 272 yards and converted 10 of its 17 third-down attempts. Florida State led just 17-10 until late in the third quarter before eventually pulling away.
USA Today's Paul Myerberg sees enough potential for something more from the Seminoles. Myerberg predicted Florida State will score what he characterized as a "minor upset" over No. 20 SMU, pointing toward Daniels settling into his third Power Four program and Florida State's pass rush needing to take a significant step forward from its opener.
That second part could decide whether the upset prediction ages particularly well.
SMU gets Kevin Jennings back for another season after he threw for 3,641 yards and 26 touchdowns in 2025. Jennings enters Monday with 7,709 career passing yards and 19 wins as a starter, while SMU lists him as the ACC's active leader in both passing yards and total offense.
There are questions around him. SMU lost 80% of its rushing production and 68.5% of its receiving production from last season, while Jennings also missed 10 days during camp with a finger injury before returning to action.
That makes Tallahassee a pretty unforgiving place to figure out exactly what the new version of SMU's offense looks like.
It also makes the upset chatter fair.
Perhaps the better question is whether Florida State showed enough against New Mexico State to suggest it can actually capitalize on the opportunity.
SMU has gone 14-2 in ACC play since joining the conference in 2024, the most wins by an ACC team over that span. Jennings owns the same 14-2 record as a starter against ACC opponents, and the only previous meeting between these programs ended with SMU hammering Florida State 42-16 in 2024.
The Seminoles get home-field advantage and a one-game head start this time around.
SMU still has Jennings.
If Florida State's defense looks anything like it did for stretches against New Mexico State, that might ultimately matter a whole lot more than the number sitting next to either team's name.
