SMU ACC Title Odds: Mustangs Are the Bet Miami Should Fear

The SMU ACC title odds are begging bettors to look beyond Miami.

While the Hurricanes enter the 2026 college football season as overwhelming favorites at -136, SMU sits at +700 despite returning quarterback Kevin Jennings, one of the nation’s most accomplished passers.

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Jennings is 18-6 over the past two seasons, throwing for 6,886 yards and 49 touchdowns during that stretch.

That’s not the résumé of a long shot. That’s the résumé of a quarterback capable of stealing the ACC crown.

Miami deserves respect after reaching the national championship game, but laying a minus price on a program that has never won the ACC feels aggressive.

The Hurricanes must replace quarterback Carson Beck, four key offensive linemen and disruptive pass rushers Rueben Bain Jr. and Akheem Mesidor.

SMU, meanwhile, has the one thing nearly every other ACC contender lacks: stability at quarterback.

Eleven of the conference’s 17 teams are expected to start somebody new behind center. Miami, Louisville, Clemson and Virginia, the other teams near the top of the odds board, all fall into that category. SMU gets Jennings back for a fifth season.

The Mustangs finished 9-4 last year, but the record doesn’t tell the full story.

Rhett Lashlee’s team held a fourth-quarter lead in every loss, with three defeats coming on the game’s final play. SMU also handed eventual national runner-up Miami a 26-20 loss in Dallas.

This isn’t a team trying to prove it belongs. It already has.

Jennings won’t have to carry the offense alone, either. Four starting offensive linemen return, including All-ACC tackle PJ Williams.

That continuity should help revive a running game that averaged only 133.8 yards per contest in 2025.

The defense is the gamble. SMU allowed 395.1 yards per game last season and returns only four starters on that side of the ball. Jennings also must cut down on mistakes after throwing 14 interceptions over the past two years.

Still, Lashlee has consistently upgraded the roster through recruiting, NIL and the transfer portal. SMU’s schedule helps, too. The Mustangs avoid Miami, Clemson and NC State during the regular season. Their biggest early tests come at Florida State and Louisville.

Survive that opening stretch, and Charlotte becomes realistic.

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“We’ve been good,” Lashlee said. “But we’re in pursuit of great.”

At +700, SMU doesn’t need to be flawless. The Mustangs simply need Jennings to keep winning—and Miami to prove its massive price isn’t built more on reputation than reality.