SMU enters Tallahassee favored, but Florida State has enough speed, depth and motivation to make Kevin Jennings and the Mustangs earn every yard.
SMU has earned the benefit of the doubt in the ACC. The Mustangs have gone 14-2 in conference play since joining the league, and they already own a convincing 42-16 win over Florida State from 2024.
But none of that guarantees anything when SMU walks into Tallahassee this weekend.
Florida State may be an underdog, but this is exactly the kind of game that can get uncomfortable fast if Rhett Lashlee’s team isn’t sharp.
The biggest variable is Kevin Jennings.
SMU’s veteran quarterback is expected to play after dealing with a jammed finger on his throwing hand during preseason camp.
Jennings remains the engine of the Mustangs’ offense, but Florida State will absolutely test whether that hand affects his accuracy, ball placement or willingness to push the ball vertically.
That’s where FSU’s upset path begins.
The Seminoles didn’t exactly inspire confidence in their 34-17 opening win over New Mexico State, especially defensively.
They allowed too much through the air and gave Mike Norvell’s critics more ammunition.
But Florida State’s roster still has real weapons.
Running backs Ousmane Kromah, Samuel Singleton Jr. and Quintrevion Wisner give the Seminoles multiple ways to attack the box, while receivers Duce Robinson, Micahi Danzy and Jayvan Boggs create legitimate matchup problems on the outside.
SMU’s defense can’t just sell out against the run.
Quarterback Ashton Daniels also showed enough mobility in the opener to force defenses to account for his legs.
If SMU loses contain or gets too aggressive up front, Daniels can extend drives that should be dead.
Florida State also has bodies capable of creating chaos defensively.
Darryll and Mandrell Desir, Daniel Lyons and Deante McCray give the Seminoles size and athleticism along the front, while Ja’Bril Rawls and Quindarrius Jones headline a secondary that has more talent than its opening performance suggested.
That doesn’t mean SMU should suddenly be scared.
It means the Mustangs should be alert.
SMU has established itself as one of the ACC’s most consistent programs, and this is the kind of road game contenders are supposed to handle.
But if Jennings isn’t completely right and Florida State gets its running game rolling, the upset conversation becomes very real.
The Mustangs are the better bet on paper.
Saturday could demand considerably more than paper.
