Stanford's Pass Rush Has a Rare Opening Against Virginia Tech

Stanford's defense has had very few good matchups this season, but Saturday's game at Virginia Tech has one worth looking at. The Hokies (6-3, 3-3 ACC) have allowed at least three sacks in four straight games, including four at SMU last week, and they have given up 27 sacks overall, ranking 15th in the ACC.

The Cardinal (4-5, 2-4) have had the opposite problem. They have six sacks in nine games, last in the conference, and linebacker Gabe Kaminski leads the team with two.

Something has to give in that matchup, and it may be the best chance Stanford has to disrupt a Virginia Tech offense that has been very good otherwise.

Quarterback Ethan Grunkemeyer has completed 71.7% of his passes for 2,431 yards, 18 touchdowns and three interceptions, and those numbers have held up even though he has been under pressure often. Running back Jeffrey Overton Jr. is averaging 6.0 yards per carry, and the Hokies score 34.2 points a game. A defense that cannot get near the quarterback has little chance of slowing that attack.

The defensive numbers from the first nine games show how much Stanford needs a different result. The Cardinal are allowing 37.3 points per game, last in the ACC, and they have allowed 35 or more in all five of their losses.

On the road they are 0-4 and giving up 50.5 points a game. Pass-rush production does not explain all of that, but it is the one area where Stanford has had almost nothing to lean on.

Virginia Tech's pass protection is vulnerable enough that even modest pressure could change some drives. Third-and-long is where a pass rush matters most, and that is where Stanford has to win.

A sack or a hurried throw on third down turns a touchdown drive into a punt, and the Cardinal have not forced enough of those. Kaminski, who had 1.5 sacks against Hawai'i in the opener, is the most likely source, and Stanford will likely need to find ways to get him one-on-one blocks.

The concern is that the Hokies' passing game has been effective despite the sacks. Grunkemeyer was dropped four times at SMU, and Virginia Tech still lost by 23 largely because SMU scored on each of its first eight drives.

That means pressure alone has not been enough to stop opposing offenses from scoring. For it to work, the pass rush needs to combine with solid run defense against Overton, who has run for 100 yards three times.

The matchup runs both ways, and Virginia Tech has the more dangerous end of it. Defensive lineman Aycen Stevens has 8.5 sacks by himself, more than Stanford's entire team total, and the Hokies lead the ACC with 27 as a group.

Stanford's offensive line has allowed 15 sacks, seventh in the conference, so Davis Warren has had far better protection than the Cardinal defense has given its own pass rushers.

If Stanford keeps Warren clean and Virginia Tech cannot say the same about Grunkemeyer, the Cardinal will have found a way to even up a game that the road record says they should lose.

Saturday's game is also a bowl game in disguise. Stanford needs two wins from its last three games to reach six, and the road trip to Blacksburg is the first one. The Hokies have a weakness up front, and the Cardinal have a weakness getting to the quarterback. Whichever one improves for one night could decide the game.