Fresh off a stunning comeback, the Cardinal must disrupt Wake Forest’s prolific passing duo and conquer an early kickoff to leave town with a win.
Stanford walks into Allegacy Stadium today a heavy underdog against a Wake Forest team that's 3-1 and feeling good about itself. Vegas has the Demon Deacons favored by 12.5, and the betting market isn't wrong to lean that way — but last week's comeback over Georgia Tech showed this Cardinal team has more in it than its 2-2 record suggests.
Here's what has to happen for Stanford to leave Winston-Salem with a win.
Make Wake Forest's defense pay like Georgia Tech's did. Wake Forest is allowing 28 points per game through four contests, giving Stanford's offense an opportunity to attack.
Davis Warren just put up a career night with 396 yards and three touchdowns against a defense in worse shape than this one, but the underlying weakness is real. If Warren and this passing offense can find the same rhythm early instead of digging a 20-10 halftime hole first, Stanford doesn't need to come from behind to win this one.
Take away Carlos Hernandez and make Gio Lopez beat you with his legs. Wake Forest's passing game has been driven by the connection between Gio Lopez and Carlos Hernandez.
Lopez has thrown for 1,112 yards and eight touchdowns, and Carlos Hernandez, a receiver who can line up anywhere on the field, leads Wake Forest with 516 receiving yards through four games.
Stanford's secondary is already down cornerback Brandon Nicholson, which makes shutting down Hernandez the single hardest and most important defensive assignment of the day.
If Stanford can force Lopez to beat them outside of his connection with Hernandez, the matchup tilts back in the Cardinal's favor.
The final piece is to survive the body clock and the early start. This is Stanford's second cross-country trip of the season, but unlike the Duke game, this one kicks off at 9 a.m. Pacific time — an early start for a West Coast team.
Linebacker Jahsiah Galvan is questionable, and if Stanford's already-thin defense has to play without him for stretches, the Cardinal will need their offense to control the tempo and keep Wake Forest's crowd from becoming a big factor.
None of this requires Stanford to be the better team on paper. It requires Warren to pick up where he left off, the defense to take away the matchup Wake Forest wants most, and the Cardinal to avoid putting themselves in another early hole.
Stanford has already shown it can respond when things go wrong, but on the road against a 3-1 Wake Forest team, it cannot rely on another comeback to get the job done. If the Cardinal can execute early, limit Hernandez's impact and keep the game within reach into the second half, they'll give themselves a real chance to pull off the upset.
