TCU basketball’s late-season surge has the Horned Frogs trending toward an NCAA Tournament bid as experts place them in the “Should Be In” category.
The TCU basketball team has spent the last month turning skepticism into belief - and now the Horned Frogs are trending toward the 2026 NCAA Tournament.
After hovering on the wrong side of the bracket bubble earlier this season, TCU has surged into the “Should Be In” category in ESPN's tournament projections, signaling that the Horned Frogs are now positioned well for an at-large bid to March Madness.
While nothing is guaranteed until Selection Sunday, the momentum in Fort Worth has been impossible to ignore.
The turnaround has been fueled by winning.
TCU has captured eight of its last nine games, including a major statement victory over Texas Tech, a result that significantly strengthened the Horned Frogs’ postseason resume.
That stretch pushed the program’s at-large odds dramatically higher, climbing from long-shot territory just weeks ago to roughly 80 percent probability of receiving an NCAA Tournament invitation.
The surge has also boosted TCU’s profile in the most important category the selection committee values - Quad 1 victories.
The Horned Frogs now own five Quad 1 wins, giving them the kind of high-end wins that often separate tournament teams from those left sweating on Selection Sunday.
Players like Xavier Edmonds, who has been dominant during the closing stretch of the season with multiple double-doubles, have helped power the late-season push.
Edmonds has averaged over 12 points and 6 rebounds per game, while providing the interior presence that has stabilized TCU on both ends of the floor.
The Horned Frogs have also benefited from improved defensive intensity and more consistent half-court offense during this stretch.
Still, there is work left.
TCU now turns its attention to the Big 12 Tournament, where another win or two could erase any lingering doubt about its place in the field of 68.
The Big 12 remains one of the toughest conferences in college basketball, meaning every game in Kansas City will be another opportunity to strengthen the resume.
For now, the outlook is clear.
TCU is no longer begging for a tournament spot — they are knocking loudly on the door.
And if the Horned Frogs keep playing the way they have over the past few weeks, the committee may have little choice but to let them in.