TCU has enough talent to contend, but Jaden Craig, Jeremy Payne and Gordon Sammis must make a rebuilt offense work immediately.
TCU football enters the 2026 season with enough talent to chase a Big 12 championship, but nearly every major question points to the same side of the ball.
TCU on SI asked the biggest question in front of the Frogs: Can Sonny Dykes rebuild his offense without losing the explosiveness that has defined his tenure in Fort Worth?
The Horned Frogs will open the season with a new offensive coordinator in Gordon Sammis, a new starting quarterback in Jaden Craig and a dramatically different approach.
TCU wants to become more physical, run the football consistently and avoid placing the entire burden on its quarterback.
It sounds smart. It’s also a considerable gamble.
Dykes built his reputation through aggressive passing attacks, but the 2026 Horned Frogs appear prepared to lean more heavily on Jeremy Payne.
The running back produced 623 yards on 110 carries last season, averaging 5.7 yards per attempt despite playing in an offense that frequently abandoned the ground game.
Payne flashed his versatility by catching the game-winning touchdown against USC in the Alamo Bowl. Now, with Trent Battle and Kevorian Barnes gone, he’ll be asked to handle a much larger workload as both a runner and receiver.
His success could determine whether Craig’s transition goes smoothly.
Craig arrives after throwing for 2,869 yards in 2025 and 2,430 in 2024. Those are respectable numbers, but they don’t match the production TCU received from Josh Hoover, who passed for 3,472 yards last season after piling up 3,949 in 2024.
Craig doesn’t necessarily need to duplicate Hoover’s statistics. In Sammis’ offense, efficiency, decision-making and ball security may matter more than chasing 4,000 passing yards.
Still, TCU can’t afford to become predictable or one-dimensional against the Big 12’s better defenses.
The receiving corps should help.
Jordan Dwyer returns after recording 54 catches for 730 yards, while Ed Small and Terry Shelton are positioned for expanded roles.
Neither Small nor Shelton produced eye-catching numbers last season, but their experience gives Craig reliable options as he learns the offense.
That combination could create a more balanced TCU attack, even if the passing statistics decline.
The concern is timing. New systems often need several games before everything begins operating naturally, and TCU doesn’t have the luxury of easing into the year.
The Horned Frogs open against North Carolina in Dublin, immediately placing Craig, Sammis and the redesigned offense under national scrutiny.
Ultimately, the responsibility falls on Dykes. He’s consistently produced quality offenses and has earned some trust, but this may be his most significant offensive test at TCU.
The Horned Frogs don’t need the new system to be perfect right away. They do need proof that balance won’t come at the expense of big plays.
If Craig settles in quickly and Payne becomes the centerpiece TCU expects, the gamble could produce a contender. If the offense stalls, the Horned Frogs may spend 2026 wishing they hadn’t changed their identity.
