ESPN has TCU sixth in the Big 12, but recent history says preseason rankings rarely capture where Sonny Dykes and the Horned Frogs finish.
FORT WORTH - TCU football enters the 2026 season sitting sixth in ESPN’s Big 12 outlook, which sounds reasonable until you remember how badly preseason rankings tend to age in this conference.
The Horned Frogs have spent the past several seasons making summer projections look shaky.
Sometimes they’ve surged past expectations. Other times they’ve slipped below them. Either way, TCU’s final destination has rarely matched the July map.
That makes this year’s sixth-place ranking less of a verdict and more of a dare.
In 2024, TCU entered the season ranked 10th in one prominent Big 12 power poll after stumbling to a 5-7 record the year before.
Questions surrounded quarterback Josh Hoover, the roster’s direction and whether the program’s 2022 national championship run had been a one-year miracle.
The Frogs answered by climbing to fifth in the league.
They weren’t the only team to embarrass the preseason consensus. Colorado rose from 11th to fourth behind Travis Hunter and Shedeur Sanders, while Arizona State went from projected cellar-dweller to Big 12 champion and College Football Playoff participant.
Then came 2025.
TCU received more respect after its rebound and was picked fourth in ESPN’s conference preview.
This time, the Frogs went the other direction, finishing seventh. Kansas State suffered an even steeper fall, sliding from a projected top-three team to 10th.
That’s the Big 12 in a nutshell ... volatile, crowded and nearly impossible to forecast.
Texas Tech, BYU, Utah, Kansas State and Arizona all sit ahead of TCU entering 2026. It’s unlikely every one of them stays there.
Injuries, quarterback play, new coaching staffs and one-score games will scramble the standings long before November.
That creates an opening for Sonny Dykes.
TCU has often played its best football when doubt replaces hype. Dykes’ teams seem more comfortable chasing than defending, and a sixth-place projection gives the Horned Frogs exactly the kind of edge they can use.
The conference’s format also keeps the door open. With only the top two teams advancing to the Big 12 Championship Game, one strong run can reshape everything.
TCU doesn’t need to win the preseason argument; the Frogs only need to survive the chaos better than everyone else.
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