ESPN FPI Says Texas Can Run the Table Against a Brutal Schedule

Texas football owns one of the nastiest schedules in the country, but ESPN’s FPI apparently sees a championship contender where everyone else sees a weekly survival test.

The matchup predictor favors the Texas Longhorns in every listed game of the 2026 season, producing an 11-0 projected record despite a slate loaded with Ohio State, Oklahoma, Tennessee, LSU and Texas A&M.

MORE: Steve Sarkisian Says Texas Must Beat Georgia to Rule the SEC

Steve Sarkisian wasn’t exaggerating when he described it as “a real football schedule.”

The computers just don’t appear frightened by it.

Texas’ closest projected matchup comes Sept. 12 against Ohio State in Austin. ESPN gives the Longhorns a 53.7 percent chance to defeat the Buckeyes, meaning the model essentially sees a coin flip tilted slightly by the home-field advantage at Darrell K Royal-Texas Memorial Stadium.

After that, FPI becomes far more bullish.

Texas is given a 75.5 percent chance to win at Tennessee and a nearly identical 75.6 percent probability against Oklahoma in the Red River rivalry.

Those numbers feel aggressive considering the environments, emotions and talent involved. Neyland Stadium isn’t exactly a relaxing weekend getaway, while Oklahoma rarely cares what a computer predicted once both teams enter the Cotton Bowl.

The model also expects Texas to avenge last season’s damaging loss to Florida, giving the Longhorns an 87.8 percent chance at home. Mississippi State, which pushed Texas into overtime in 2025, receives only a 4.2 percent chance of doing it again.

The real stress arrives in November.

FPI gives Texas a 64 percent chance to beat LSU in Baton Rouge, where Sarkisian could face longtime friend Lane Kiffin in one of the season’s most anticipated coaching matchups.

Two weeks later, the Longhorns travel to Kyle Field with a 65.1 percent chance of defeating Mike Elko and Texas A&M.

That Thanksgiving showdown could determine playoff positioning, SEC championship access and statewide bragging rights. Calling a road win there comfortable would be foolish, regardless of what the percentages say.

Texas doesn’t need to finish undefeated to reach the College Football Playoff. A loss at Ohio State, LSU or Texas A&M could be survivable if the Longhorns avoid the upset that wrecked their postseason hopes last year.

MORE: Longhorns Star Colin Simmons Is Thinking National Title, Not Just NFL

Still, ESPN’s forecast sends a loud message ... this schedule may be brutal, but Texas is expected to be better than everyone on it.

Now Sarkisian’s team has to make the computers look smart.