Longhorns Faces Must-Win Road Test Against Missouri in SEC Showdown

The last time Texas and Missouri played a conference game, the Longhorns lost in Columbia and both schools were still in the Big 12. That was in 2011.

They have met once since, in the 2017 Texas Bowl, and have not faced each other in a game with postseason implications for either program in more than a decade.

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Saturday changes that in a hurry.

No. 7 Texas visits No. 18 Missouri at 11 a.m. CT at Faurot Field with both teams sitting at 6-2 overall and 3-2 in the SEC.

Neither team can realistically absorb a third loss and remain in the College Football Playoff conversation, making this the most consequential game on either schedule to this point.

Texas arrives banged up enough that Sarkisian called his team undermanned on Monday, and the initial injury report backed him up with nine Longhorns listed.

Trevor Goosby, Hollywood Smothers, Nick Townsend and Richard Wesley are out, while All-American edge Colin Simmons, receivers Ryan Wingo and Cam Coleman, and defensive backs Kade Phillips and Graceson Littleton are all questionable.

Missouri's report lists three players out and none questionable.

The game itself comes down to whether Texas can stop the run.

Jamal Roberts is one of three players in the country with more than 1,000 rushing yards. He has 1,005 yards and nine touchdowns while leading the SEC in rushing yards per game.

He became the first SEC running back to reach that mark this season and rushed for 222 yards against Texas A&M last month.

PFF credits Roberts with 844 rushing yards after contact, which leads the FBS by 74 yards over Boise State's Dylan Riley. Roughly 80 percent of his charted production comes after first contact, at an average of 4.2 yards per touch.

Ahmad Hardy complicates things further. The preseason All-American and reigning SEC rushing leader returned last week against Arkansas for the first time since being shot in the thigh in May.

He took two carries for five yards in a controlled debut. Coach Eli Drinkwitz has indicated Hardy's role will expand Saturday, with the Tigers moving toward a genuine rotation rather than the limited workload he had in his first game back.

Texas has handled that assignment all year. The Longhorns rank 10th nationally in total defense, allowing 273.1 yards per game, and 19th in scoring defense at 17.1 points per game.

They have yet to surrender a 100-yard rusher. Texas allows 102.4 rushing yards per game, 24th in the country.

The historical pattern favors Texas here. Missouri averages 200 rushing yards in its six wins, and both losses came when the ground game disappeared.

Mississippi State took a 31-24 decision in September, and Ole Miss limited Roberts to fewer than two yards per carry on 20 touches during a 31-3 win last month. Missouri did not score after its opening possession.

Shutting down the run does not guarantee anything, though, because Austin Simmons has been quietly excellent.

The Ole Miss transfer has completed 152 of 240 passes for 1,952 yards, with 16 touchdowns and two interceptions.

His 82.9 PFF passing grade ranks fourth in the SEC and 24th nationally, and PFF has credited him with nine big-time throws.

What makes him difficult is his decision-making. Simmons rarely puts the ball in danger, takes what the defense gives him and has the arm to punish defenses that leave soft coverage behind a loaded box.

Missouri leads the SEC in turnover margin at plus-eight, largely because of him. 

He has also been streaky, throwing for at least 290 yards in four games and fewer than 180 in three others.

Drinkwitz's home record is another factor nobody should ignore. In seven seasons, he has posted the best home winning percentage of any head coach in program history, going 35-9.

Faurot Field also added a $250 million north end zone expansion this offseason, pushing capacity to 63,609. A win over a top-10 Texas team would rank among the biggest of his career.

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For the Longhorns, this is the first of three road games in their final four. LSU waits next week, and the margin for error disappears entirely after Saturday.

Kickoff is at 11 a.m. CT on ESPN.