Oct 28, 2026 12:06 PM

Despite a rollercoaster season and mounting SEC losses, Paul Finebaum predicts the Longhorns will crash the postseason party, proving a three-loss path to the championship remains open.

Let’s face it, through seven games the Texas Longhorns have played only three quarters of football that resembled anything close to a national champion.

Despite the inconsistency. Despite Arch Manning’s underwhelming performance. Despite Steve Sarkisian’s curious risk-reward play-calling. Despite Oklahoma. And even despite Florida, there’s still a path to make college football’s 12-team playoff and lift the trophy in early 2027.

“I think Texas is one of the 12 best teams in the country,” noted SEC analyst Paul Finebaum said this week, “whether they lose two games or three games.”

Like you, I wrote off the Longhorns after the second-half collapse against the unranked Gators. But then … college football chaos commenced.

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Since Texas’ second loss of the season, Georgia, Indiana, Notre Dame, Texas Tech and BYU all lost their first game and teams like Alabama and Tennessee lost their second.

It’s not even Halloween and seven SEC teams have two losses. Bottom line: The race to win a spot in the postseason dozen is still wide open.

To have a chance, the Longhorns must take care of Mississippi State Saturday in Austin and then Missouri the following week. (They’ll have to do without star left tackle Trevor Goosby, who suffered a season-ending knee injury last weekend against Ole Miss.) Do that, and Texas will be 7-2 heading into the Nov. 14 showdown at Lane Kiffin’s LSU Tigers.

“That LSU game, though, is really where it’s going to come to a head,” Finebaum said. “And right now, I would pick LSU to win that game. That’s why I’m using the nine-and-three metric. But you have to measure that against what is going on around college football.”

Finebaum believes Texas will make the playoff field even with a record of 9-3. Yikes.

More than half (11) of college football’s last 20 champs have finished with one loss or less. In the 156-year history of the sport only three teams - Minnesota in 1960, LSU in 2007 and Ohio State in 2024 - have lifted the trophy with two losses.

As evidenced by the fourth quarter against Ohio State (21-0) and the first half against Ole Miss (21-3), Texas has the potential to be the best team in college football. And they may still just get a chance to prove it.

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