One win could catapult Texas into the playoff picture. See how key upsets and rivalry matchups shape their improbable championship path.
With one week left in the regular season, the Texas Longhorns still have a chance to prove they belong in the College Football Playoff.
Thanks to their latest win—and several key results around the country—their odds of sneaking into a playoff spot have quietly become more realistic than many realize.
While plenty of fans and analysts assume Texas is eliminated or barely hanging on, that simply isn’t the case. In fact, their path has become clearer than expected.
Here’s what needs to happen during rivalry week and conference championship weekend for the Longhorns to pull off the improbable and earn a playoff berth.
First and foremost, none of this matters if Texas doesn’t take care of business against Texas A&M.
The Longhorns absolutely must beat the Aggies for any playoff scenario to stay alive. If they handle their rivalry matchup on Friday in Austin, Texas will present something the committee values immensely: high-quality wins.
Texas climbed from No. 17 to No. 16 in this week’s AP Poll after defeating Arkansas. A few results around the country also helped their cause, most notably Georgia Tech’s upset loss to Pittsburgh and Oregon’s win over USC.
The key for Texas is hoping the other major conferences cannibalize themselves to a point where only their champions—and maybe one runner-up—remain in strong playoff contention.
That’s why Utah’s comeback on Saturday night was tough for Longhorn fans. With Utah surging, there’s now a real possibility that the Big 12 could end up with three legitimate playoff contenders: Texas Tech, BYU, and Utah.
As rivalry week approaches—the final and most chaotic week of the regular season—this is the stretch that will decide Texas’ fate.
These are the key matchups that could help push the Longhorns into playoff contention if they defeat Texas A&M on Friday:
Key Matchups Where a Loss Helps Texas (likely dropping these teams behind the Longhorns):
No. 9 Notre Dame vs. Stanford
- A loss drops Notre Dame to 9–3 and likely ends their playoff hopes.
No. 12 Vanderbilt vs. No. 18 Tennessee
- A Vanderbilt loss puts both teams at 9–3, and Texas holds the valuable head-to-head over Vandy.
No. 13 Miami vs. No. 24 Pitt
- Miami would fall to 9–3 and miss the ACC Championship Game.
No. 14 Utah vs. Kansas
- Utah falls to 9–3 and misses the Big 12 Championship.
No. 10 Alabama vs. Auburn
- Alabama would drop to 9–3 and miss the SEC Championship Game.
No. 11 BYU vs. UCF
- BYU falls to 10–2 and likely misses the Big 12 Championship if Arizona State wins.
No. 8 Oklahoma vs. LSU
- Oklahoma would fall to 9–3, and Texas owns the head-to-head.
Right now, Texas sits at No. 16 nationally, meaning they need to climb just four spots to become playoff eligible. Rivalry week brings chaos every year, and these matchups will heavily influence playoff positioning, conference championship berths, bowl eligibility, and bragging rights. Even better for Texas, five of these seven teams are on the road, making upsets even more possible.
If multiple teams end up at that dreaded 9–3 threshold, Texas would hold a significant advantage over almost all of the potential 9–3 contenders thanks to their quality wins and head-to-head matchups.
Additional matchups outside Texas’ immediate range could also shape the rankings:
Additional Helpful Outcomes for Texas:
No. 7 Texas Tech vs. West Virginia
- A loss drops Tech to 10–2, lowering their ranking and potentially removing them from the Big 12 title race.
No. 17 Virginia vs. Virginia Tech
- A loss drops Virginia to 9–3 and out of ACC title contention.
No. 6 Ole Miss vs. Mississippi State
- A loss drops Ole Miss to 10–2 and out of the elite playoff tier.
No. 5 Oregon vs. Washington
- A loss drops Oregon to 10–2 and weakens their playoff argument.
No. 20 James Madison vs. Coastal Carolina
- A loss removes JMU as a playoff-eligible threat in the non–Power Four.
No. 21 North Texas vs. Temple
- A loss knocks North Texas out of playoff eligibility.
No. 22 Tulane vs. Charlotte
- A loss drops Tulane to 9–3 and ends their playoff chances.
No. 2 Indiana vs. Purdue
- A loss drops Indiana to 11–1 and keeps them out of the Big Ten Championship if Michigan beats Ohio State—pushing them downward in the rankings.
It’s also worth noting that five of these eight teams are on the road, increasing the likelihood of an upset.
Worst-Case Scenarios for Texas
There are a few wildcard matchups that could work against the Longhorns if results break the wrong way:
Michigan beating Ohio State
- Could create a realistic path for four Big Ten teams (Michigan, Ohio State, Indiana, Oregon) to enter playoff contention—a nightmare for Texas.
Georgia Tech beating Georgia
- While unlikely, a GT win could be heavily valued by the committee and complicate the ranking structure.
Texas Tech, BYU, and Utah all winning
- Would strengthen the Big 12’s top tier and make it harder for Texas to climb.
These outcomes wouldn’t eliminate Texas, but they would make the ranking path much more complicated.
Despite these challenges, Texas needs to move up only four spots—and the odds of that happening are far more realistic now than they were a week ago.
Rivalry week is known for chaos, and if the right dominoes fall, a Longhorn playoff berth might just be on the horizon.