As the NCAA football regular season winds down, the Texas Longhorns find themselves in a unique position—fighting to secure a spot in the College Football Playoff. Earlier in the year, and even through the heart of the season, many—even Longhorn fans—doubted whether this team could reach this point after their early struggles.

Yet now, with just three games remaining, the Longhorns’ fate hangs in the balance, with multiple possible outcomes depending on who they beat—and who they fall to—down the stretch.

These final three games carry enormous weight and will have major implications on both the SEC Championship picture and the College Football Playoff race. It won’t be easy—the Longhorns’ remaining opponents include No. 5 Georgia, Arkansas, and No. 3 Texas A&M.

So, what exactly needs to happen for Texas to lock in one of those coveted playoff spots?

To state the obvious: if the Longhorns win out in their final three games, a playoff spot is essentially guaranteed. Not only would they punch their ticket to the SEC Championship Game, but they’d also be in prime position to secure a high postseason seed.

A win in the SEC title game could even vault them into the No. 1 or No. 2 spot, depending on how Ohio State performs down the stretch.

Even with a loss in the SEC Championship, Texas would likely remain comfortably within the top six.

But let’s not get too carried away. Winning out against that slate of opponents is a tall task. So what happens if Texas drops a game? Could they still land a playoff spot? The answer: yes, they could—but it completely depends on which game they lose… and they can only afford one.

Texas HAS to win at least two of its final three games—no ifs, ands, or buts about it.

Last season, the threshold for sneaking into the playoff picture hovered around three losses; anything beyond that was entirely off the table. Even strong programs like Ole Miss and South Carolina found themselves on the outside looking in despite sitting on the bubble with three defeats. So yes, a 9–3 record puts you squarely on the chopping block—but in Texas’ case, that mark would also include three wins over top-10 opponents, which could give the Longhorns an edge over other bubble teams when the committee makes its final call.

Here’s the tricky situation—and the “equation,” if you will—behind the combinations Texas needs to reach the postseason. Ideally, we assume both Georgia and Texas A&M keep winning and remain highly ranked. In the best-case scenario for Texas, going 2-of-3 likely means beating Arkansas and then winning either against Georgia or Texas A&M.

As mentioned earlier, if both SEC powers continue winning, it actually benefits Texas more to beat A&M in two weeks than to beat Georgia. That’s due not only to A&M’s higher projected ranking, but also because the CFP committee consistently shows recency bias—big wins late in the season often matter more than big wins in September.

So no, a loss to Georgia wouldn’t end Texas’ season. But it would make the path much riskier. In that case, Texas would absolutely have to win its final two games and hope that A&M continues taking care of business heading into Austin.

But what if Texas beats Georgia in Sanford Stadium, takes care of Arkansas, and then loses to A&M to close the regular season? That’s where the recency bias comes into play once again. Depending on how that A&M game unfolds—and how bad the loss looks—the committee could realistically leave Texas out, even with a win over Georgia in hand.

Now here’s where things get really tricky. What if Texas loses to Arkansas, but beats both Georgia and Texas A&M? To be honest, it’s nearly impossible to predict exactly how the CFP committee would handle that scenario. On one hand, you can argue that losing to poor teams like Florida and Arkansas should disqualify them. On the other hand, you’d be looking at a team that beat four top-10 opponents in the regular season (Oklahoma, Vanderbilt, Georgia, A&M). How do you justify leaving that out?

Still, it’s safe to assume that while beating two of the nation’s best teams late in the year is huge, the last thing Texas wants is a loss to a lower-tier SEC team like Arkansas. And based on how Texas has played against that tier of competition—Mississippi State, Kentucky, and the lack of putting away Vanderbilt—you certainly can’t rule that possibility out.

If we were to rank the remaining game outcomes from best-case to worst-case for Texas, it would look something like this:

Georgia win + Arkansas win + Texas A&M win (the obvious ideal)

Georgia loss + Arkansas win + Texas A&M win

Georgia win + Arkansas win + Texas A&M loss

Georgia win + Arkansas loss + Texas A&M win

We should also take into account how Oklahoma and Vanderbilt finish their seasons. With Texas holding wins over both, their final records could significantly influence how the Longhorns’ résumé is viewed. Oklahoma faces No. 4 Alabama tomorrow, and Vanderbilt closes its regular season against No. 23 Tennessee.
Those matchups give both programs a real chance to climb in the rankings—and any rise they make would not only boost their own profiles, but strengthen Texas’ résumé as well.

Simply put: two wins can get this team into the playoff. The strength of schedule and the caliber of victories would give Texas a compelling case—but ultimately, time will tell.