Mel Kiper Drops Arch Manning As NFL Draft Stock Takes A Nosedive

Once projected atop the 2027 NFL Draft, the Texas quarterback is slipping down some boards as another costly loss raises questions about his professional future.

Five quarterbacks.

READ MORE: No. 7 Texas Blows 14-Point Lead in 27-24 Florida Loss: Recap & Takeaways

That's how many ESPN's Mel Kiper Jr. ranked ahead of Arch Manning on his latest 2027 NFL Draft board. And those rankings came out before No. 7 Texas blew another halftime lead Saturday.

Regardless of one's thoughts on Kiper as a talent evaluator, that's not where Manning was supposed to be at this point in the season. 

Manning completed 14 of 20 passes for 173 yards and a touchdown, but his fumble on the Longhorns' final possession sealed a 27-24 loss to Florida at DKR-Texas Memorial Stadium.

Another opportunity wasted. Another costly turnover. And another afternoon that won't help Manning's case to become the No. 1 overall selection next April.

Back in April, Manning was the early favorite to go first overall. Multiple projections throughout the offseason had him atop the 2027 class.

Six games into his second season as Texas' starter, that confidence is being tested.

Kiper ranked Manning No. 24 overall and sixth among quarterbacks Thursday, citing concerns about his inconsistency, accuracy and decision-making.

Oklahoma State's Drew Mestemaker sits atop Kiper's quarterback rankings and second overall.

That's quite a shift … especially for a player whose NFL destination once seemed like a bigger question than his draft position.

And Kiper isn't alone.

CBS Sports' Ryan Wilson excluded Manning from his October 5 first-round mock draft, which featured five quarterbacks. Wilson later explained that concerns about Manning's decision-making and accuracy influenced his evaluation.

The broader numbers also suggest some movement.

According to Ultimate Big Board, Manning slipped from No. 1 to No. 2 in its consensus rankings between October 1 and October 15. His weighted average projected selection moved from 1.6 to 2.7.

That October 15 snapshot still had him appearing in 22 of 25 eligible mock drafts, though, with Manning ranked first among quarterbacks.

So there's hardly a consensus that Manning has fallen out of the top tier. Some evaluators still see a potential franchise quarterback. Others have questions about how much developing he has left to do.

Saturday gave them more evidence.

Facing fourth-and-six late against Florida, Manning connected with Emmett Mosley V for 62 yards before finding Cam Coleman for a nine-yard touchdown.

It was the kind of sequence that made Manning one of the country's most intriguing NFL prospects.

But consider everything that came before it.

Texas went 52 minutes and 21 seconds between offensive touchdowns. The Longhorns gained eight yards across two third-quarter possessions, and Manning took five sacks.

He finished with zero net rushing yards on 10 attempts.

There's plenty of responsibility to distribute. Steve Sarkisian's offensive line struggled, the rushing attack produced just 99 yards and the offense couldn't sustain possessions.

Still, Manning has now committed three fourth-quarter turnovers in two consecutive losses.

Against Oklahoma, two interceptions helped turn a 17-7 halftime lead into a 27-24 defeat. Against Florida, his best throw came minutes before his game-ending fumble.

NFL evaluators have plenty to appreciate on film. They also have plenty to question.

Which brings up another possibility.

Sarkisian said in June he wouldn't be surprised if Manning returned to Texas for a fifth season in 2027. Wilson has since examined whether another year could improve his standing ahead of the 2028 draft.

That conversation would've sounded premature when Manning was dominating early mock drafts.

Now? It's worth having.

Ole Miss visits Austin next Saturday, giving Manning another opportunity to answer questions about his NFL readiness.

His arm talent hasn't disappeared. He can still make throws that leave NFL evaluators reaching for the rewind button — like that 62-yard strike to Mosley.

But six games into 2026, Manning's standing atop the draft conversation looks far less secure than it did in April.

He's still one of the most intriguing quarterbacks in the 2027 class. He's also becoming one of its biggest questions.

READ MORE: Arch Manning's Two Picks Doom No. 1 Texas In Stunning Oklahoma Loss

And if the next six games look anything like the last two …

The biggest NFL Draft question surrounding Manning might be whether he enters it at all.