Michigan faces a roster crisis, potentially missing 25 players for the Citrus Bowl, creating a golden opportunity for Texas.
Texas didn't make the College Football Playoff in Year 2 of the SEC, and a 9-3 regular season isn't what anyone in Austin wanted to hang a banner for.
But the Longhorns still get one last national stage on New Year's Eve, and the Citrus Bowl matchup with Michigan is starting to look less like a measuring stick and more like an opportunity.
Because Michigan is wobbling hard.
In an interview with CBS Austin's Bob Ballou, interim Michigan head coach Biff Poggi openly admitted he isn't even sure how many players the Wolverines will have available for the bowl.
He promised effort, but the availability sounded like a roulette wheel. "We will play hard, we're coming,' Poggi said, before dropping the part that matters.
"I don’t know how many we'll come with."
Then he went further. He’s thinking there could be as many as 25 players who don’t come back for the game.
That's a roster crisis being said out loud.
Michigan's situation has been spinning since the firing of Sherrone Moore, a change that shoved Poggi into the interim chair and left the program scrambling for stability at the worst possible time, when bowl prep is supposed to be routine, and buy-in is supposed to be automatic.
Instead, the Wolverines are battling the modern bowl reality ... opt-outs, portal decisions, and players protecting their futures.
Per CBS Sports' Brandon Marcello, Michigan has three confirmed opt-outs at the moment: defensive end Derrick Moore, linebacker Jaishawn Barham, and offensive guard Giovanni El-Hadi. That list could grow fast if Poggi's estimate isn't just fear talking.
Texas won't apologize for any of it.
On offense, the Longhorns still have most of their top difference-makers intact, with Arch Manning leading a group that includes Ryan Wingo, Emmett Mosley V, tight end Jack Endries, and running back Quintrevion Wisner.
That continuity matters, especially against a Michigan roster that may show up undermanned in the trenches and thin in the front seven.
Defensively, Texas is dealing with its own exits in linebackers Anthony Hill Jr., Trey Moore, and Liona Lefau; defensive backs Malik Muhammad, Jaylon Guilbeau, and Michael Taaffe; and defensive end Ethan Burke are notable losses.
But here's the difference. Texas knows exactly who's out and what it's working with. Michigan sounds like it's still counting bodies.
So yeah, the CFP miss still stings. But bowls are about narrative control, too. If Michigan arrives in Orlando wounded and short-handed,
Texas has a clear mandate ... take the air out early, make it ugly, and leave no doubt. New Year's Eve doesn't fix the season, but it can sure reshape how it’s remembered.