Texas stunned No. 3 Texas A&M and earned a third top-10 win, but with just a 1.6 percent CFP chance, the Longhorns now need a miracle and chaos to get in.
The Texas Longhorns just delivered one of the biggest statements of the college football season, and it still might not matter. Texas' 27-17 win over previously unbeaten No. 3 Texas A&M on Friday night in Austin didn't just end the Aggies' perfect season; it gave the Longhorns a third top-10 victory and the kind of season-ending win most playoff hopefuls would kill for.
It was exactly what Texas needed. In reality, it looks like too little, too late.
Coming into the final weekend, Texas already needed help, along with a rivalry win, to stay alive in the College Football Playoff race.
According to ESPN's FPI, the Longhorns' odds briefly climbed to 11 percent immediately after toppling the Aggies.
But once the Saturday dust settled across the country, those hopes were effectively crushed. Texas now sits at a brutal 1.6 percent chance to make the 12-team field.
The problem? Almost nobody around them slipped up.
Ohio State's win over Michigan did clear one heavyweight from the bubble, but that was about the only break Texas got. No. 8 Oklahoma survived LSU in a 17-13 rock fight.
No. 9 BYU rallied from a 14-0 hole to blow out UCF 41-21. No. 10 Alabama escaped Auburn 27-20 in the Iron Bowl. No. 12 Miami hammered No. 22 Pittsburgh 38-7, and No. 9 Notre Dame crushed Stanford 49-20 to close the night.
Aside from Michigan, the teams in and around Texas' neighborhood all handled their business.
That reality makes Friday's upset feel bittersweet. Texas just handed a top-three rival its first loss, arguably owns the best single win of the season, and still needs near-total chaos on Championship Weekend to have a shot at sneaking in.
Inside the Texas locker room, though, the belief hasn't wavered. Quarterback Arch Manning made it clear what he thinks this team can do if the committee gives them even the smallest opening.
"We’re a good team. We play a lot of good teams. We're only getting better. If they let us in, we can beat anyone," Manning said. He praised the Longhorns' resilience, noting how the group keeps fighting "no matter what the media says" or how the previous week went.
Texas has done its part, at least for now.
The resume is strong, the locker room belief is real, and the win over Texas A&M will live forever in rivalry lore. But unless chaos finally hits the top of the rankings, the Longhorns' CFP dream may go down as the best "what if" of their season.