Texas commit Grady Emerson's No. 2 MLB draft projection puts an Austin arrival in serious doubt.
Last week's MLB Draft lottery put the 2026 draft board on the clock, and the Chicago White Sox came out with the No. 1 overall pick while the Tampa Bay Rays jumped into the No. 2 slot.
With the order set, mock drafts have started doing what they do best: creating chaos - and giving Texas fans a reason to both grin and sweat.
On3's first post-lottery mock projects Texas commit Grady Emerson, a 6-2 shortstop from Argyle, Texas (Fort Worth Christian), to go No. 2 overall to the Rays.
If that projection holds, Emerson won't just be "a nice get" for Jim Schlossnagle’s recruiting - he'll be a national headline who happens to be pledged to the Longhorns.
Emerson's rise isn't hype-only. He's been a known quantity on the amateur circuit, including time in USA Baseball’s pipeline, and his Team USA body of work pops.
USA Baseball notes he hit .346 with a .949 OPS during his final run with the 18U National Team.
Evaluators have long loved the defense ... rangy actions, clean hands, and the kind of shortstop polish you don’t teach - while his bat has surged enough to push him into the very top of the class.
The only name currently projected above him in the On3 mock is UCLA shortstop Roch Cholowsky, the early No. 1 candidate for the White Sox.
Cholowsky's profile is as loud as it gets with a .353 average with 19 doubles and 23 home runs in his sophomore season, numbers that helped cement him as the draft's headliner.
If Emerson is tracking just behind that level of production and buzz, it’s a statement about his trajectory at 17.
And here's the part Texas fans won't love ... top-of-the-draft projections usually come with top-of-the-draft money.
Even with NIL changing the calculus, a player expected to go in the first few picks is typically staring at a life-changing signing bonus and a fast track into pro development.
That makes Emerson's path to campus feel more like a long shot than a lock.
For now, the projection is the point. Texas is attached to a player being discussed at the very top of the draft, not the fringe. That's a recruiting flex, even if it turns into a draft-night goodbye.