
With three games left and two losses already on the ledger, Texas has entered the part of the schedule where hypotheticals become oxygen.
Win out and the path is obvious: stack resume wins, ride momentum, and force the College Football Playoff committee to acknowledge who the Longhorns are in November, not who they were in September.
But what if Texas goes 2-1 down the stretch? That’s where the debate gets loud.
ESPN's Greg McElroy believes a narrow defeat to the right opponent doesn’t have to be fatal.
"I think that Texas would be in a really good spot if they were to lose this weekend close (against Georgia)," McElroy said. "We’ve seen the committee reward close losses. We've already seen that this year. If they were to lose close this weekend, or close against Texas A&M, then I think that Texas would have a pretty strong argument."
The committee's track record supports the idea: context matters, and so does who you played when you chose to schedule boldly.
That's the key to Texas' story. The Longhorns' first loss came at Ohio State in Week 1, the second, at Florida to open SEC play.
McElroy framed it this way:
"They could say 'Well, we could have played powder puffs in the nonconference,'" he said. "'Instead, we decided to go on the road and play in Columbus… Yes, we lost to Florida. It wasn't good. Yes, we lost a close one to either Georgia or Texas A&M, but we at least challenged ourselves.'"
In other words, the strength of schedule is a feature, not a bug, if Texas closes.
Georgia in Athens is the immediate crucible.
A close loss there would keep the door cracked, but it would also ramp up pressure on the final two, Arkansas and Texas A&M.
The Aggies loom as the toughest remaining test, unbeaten and ranked No. 3 in both the AP Poll and the CFP Rankings. Beat A&M and you've banked a committee-proof victory. Lose close to Georgia and still take out the Aggies? Now the resume breathes differently.
Of course, the cleanest solution is the one in burnt orange handwriting, win three straight, finish 10-2, and let the film speak.
Short of that, a 9-3 Texas with one close loss to either Georgia or A&M would need chaos elsewhere and a persuasive committee room.
The Longhorns built a schedule that dares voters to value ambition. Over the next three weeks, they'll find out whether daring counts as destiny ... or just drama.