Texas owns college football’s strongest résumé after stunning Ohio State, while the SEC’s projected playoff dominance reshapes the national race.
Texas football didn’t merely survive its showdown with Ohio State. The Longhorns seized control of the early College Football Playoff race with a comeback that could influence the selection committee’s thinking for months.
Texas erased a 20-point fourth-quarter deficit to defeat then-No. 1 Ohio State 24-23 in Austin. The victory lifted the Longhorns to No. 1 in the AP Top 25 and gave Steve Sarkisian’s team the most valuable win in the country through two weeks.
Arch Manning passed for 195 yards and a touchdown as Texas scored 21 unanswered points in the fourth quarter. His touchdown pass to Ryan Wingo started the rally before Hollywood Smothers scored twice, including the winning 1-yard touchdown with 25 seconds remaining.
“It wasn’t very pretty, but we won,” Manning said. “That’s what good teams do.”
The box score underscores how improbable the finish was. Ohio State outgained Texas 372-336, while Buckeyes quarterback Julian Sayin threw for 278 yards.
Jeremiah Smith finished with 164 receiving yards, but Ohio State couldn’t score in the fourth quarter after carrying a 23-3 lead into the final period.
Texas now owns the best strength-of-record résumé in the FBS. According to ESPN Analytics, an average playoff contender would have only a 25 percent chance of beginning 2-0 against the Longhorns’ schedule.
The Allstate Playoff Predictor gives Texas an 87.7 percent chance of reaching the postseason and a 36.7 percent chance of securing the No. 1 seed. Both figures lead the country.
The larger playoff picture also favors the SEC. The conference currently occupies six spots in the projected 12-team field and has an 84 percent chance of sending at least four teams.
The Big Ten’s comparable probability is only 16 percent after Oregon’s 39-31 loss to Oklahoma State damaged the league’s early profile.
There’s still a long way to go.
Texas faces what ESPN Analytics ranks as the nation’s 12th-most-difficult remaining schedule, and conference play will provide plenty of opportunities for the Longhorns’ résumé to rise or collapse.
For now, however, Texas has the win every contender wants and the playoff odds everyone else is chasing.
The Longhorns didn’t look dominant for four quarters against Ohio State, but when their season demanded a response, they produced one for the history books.
