Why the Longhorns Are Closer to the CFP Than People Realize

After a tough loss in Athens to the Georgia Bulldogs last weekend, many have already counted the Texas Longhorns out of the College Football Playoff race. The assumption is simple: a team that can finish no better than 9–3 has no path. But that assumption is wrong. Texas still has a real chance to make a case for a playoff spot.

First, let’s state the obvious—if Texas doesn’t win out, none of this matters. They’ll be completely out of the conversation. But if they do win out…things could get interesting, and the Longhorns just might sneak into the playoff picture.

Winning out puts Texas at 9–3. And while no 9–3 non–automatic qualifier has made the 12-team playoff since its debut last season, Texas has several factors working in its favor that could make them the first. Here’s why their path is more realistic than people think:

1. The Next Two Games Are Winnable

Both remaining games will be played in Austin, where Texas has been dominant. Over the past three seasons, the Longhorns have lost only one home game. All three of this year’s losses came on the road in some of college football’s toughest environments—Ohio State, Florida, and Georgia.

Next up is Arkansas, a struggling 2–8 team with both wins coming against non–Power 4 opponents.

Then comes one of the biggest rivalries in college sports: Texas vs. Texas A&M. The Aggies will come to Austin looking to lock in their SEC Championship bid. Many bettors will lean toward A&M, but Texas has a legitimate shot. The Aggies’ strength of schedule has been weak, featuring the SEC’s bottom half and an FCS opponent right before Texas. Their close call against South Carolina last weekend also showed they’re far from unbeatable.

Meanwhile, Texas will have home-field advantage—and arguably more on the line—with A&M already comfortably in the playoff picture.

2. A Strong Win Résumé

When the committee evaluates teams, high-quality wins matter. If Texas wins out, they would finish with three victories over Top-25 opponents:

No. 8 Oklahoma

No. 14 Vanderbilt

No. 3 Texas A&M

There’s a strong chance all three of these teams end up in the playoff field. Leaving out a 9–3 team with wins over three playoff teams would be incredibly difficult for the committee to justify.

If Oklahoma or Vanderbilt drops another game, Texas would also have head-to-head tiebreakers over both, strengthening their position even more.

3. Lack of Depth Outside the Power Conferences

Some years, non–Power 4 teams or non-champions sneak into the playoff. But this year, there’s a real chance several conference runners-up get left out entirely.

Last season, Boise State made the playoff from the American Conference after Ashton Jeanty’s Heisman-caliber year. This year, no Group of Five team has a case remotely close to that.

And while the ACC sent two teams last season after Clemson beat a strong SMU squad, this year is different. The ACC has suffered heavy losses across the board and is unlikely to send more than its conference champion—opening up another valuable at-large spot for the SEC, Big Ten, or Big 12.

4. Recency Bias Matters

In the committee’s eyes, what’s happening now matters more than what happened earlier. Texas currently sits at No. 17. Simply continuing to win while the teams ahead of them lose—especially during rivalry week—could easily move them up five or more spots.

And if Texas closes the season by beating the No. 3 team in the country? A jump into the playoff conversation becomes very realistic.

Texas still has a chance. It’s not impossible—it’s college football. The chaos, the scoreboard watching, the unpredictable swings of rivalry week…this is why we love the sport. And for the Longhorns, the door to the CFP is still cracked open.