Oregon targets Red Raider red zone struggles, penalties, and pass protection. Tech must dominate these crucial areas to advance.
Texas Tech didn't claw its way to the College Football Playoff quarterfinals to play scared, but Oregon is absolutely showing up to Hard Rock Stadium with a checklist.
The No. 5 Ducks are a 2.5-point favorite heading into the Orange Bowl on Jan. 1, and the reasoning isn't complicated.
Oregon believes it can turn a handful of Texas Tech season-long blemishes into game-swinging moments.
Let's call it what it is. This matchup is going to be decided by inches, flags, and finishing. The Red Raiders have the defense, toughness, and big-game DNA to win it.
But if Tech wants to punch its ticket to the CFP semifinals, it has to slam the door on the three soft spots Oregon will try to pry open.
First is the red zone.
Texas Tech has moved the ball all year, but the difference between a good drive and a touchdown drive has been inconsistency.
Against a defense loaded with difference-makers like Bryce Boettcher, Dillon Thieneman, and Bear Alexander, settling for field goals is basically handing Oregon permission to hang around until the fourth quarter ... and then steal it.
In a game with two top defenses, empty trips inside the 20 aren't just missed points. They're momentum donations.
Second is penalties.
The Red Raiders have flirted with chaos far too often, and Oregon is built to weaponize that. Tech's penalty count has lived in the wrong neighborhood nationally, and in a playoff game, one holding call can turn a scoring drive into a punt.
One late hit can turn a stop into seven points. Oregon isn't perfect, but it has been cleaner, and that matters when the margin is razor-thin. If Tech wants to win a grinder, it can't beat itself with yellow laundry.
Finally, the third thing is pass protection, and specifically, sacks allowed.
Oregon's front is going to come hunting for Behren Morton, and the Ducks have the math on their side. Oregon has protected Dante Moore better than Tech has protected its own quarterback. If Oregon can create negative plays - the kind that turn second-and-manageable into third-and-long panic - it can force Tech to play behind the chains.
That's how playoff dreams die ... one busted protection, one drive-killing sack, one hurried throw.
Texas Tech has been off since the Big 12 title win over BYU, while Oregon already has a CFP win in its back pocket after dropping 54 on James Madison. So here's the mission: start fast, finish drives, play clean, and keep Morton upright.
Do that, and the Red Raiders won't just survive the Ducks' "advantages" ... they'll flip them into an upset statement.