Texas Tech owns the Big 12 spotlight and a playoff-ready roster, but Will Hammond’s rebuilt knee may determine whether the Red Raiders can chase a title.
Texas Tech football isn’t sneaking up on anybody in 2026.
The Red Raiders have become the national media’s overwhelming Big 12 favorite, with ESPN, CBS Sports and The Athletic all placing Joey McGuire’s program near or inside the preseason top 10.
Now comes the uncomfortable part ... living up to the hype.
ESPN’s Football Power Index ranks Texas Tech No. 10 nationally, ahead of Texas A&M, USC and Oklahoma.
ESPN’s traditional preseason poll has the Red Raiders one spot lower at No. 11, while CBS Sports puts them at No. 9.
The Athletic also lands Texas Tech at No. 10 after combining traditional roster evaluation with an analytics-based projection.
Even the more cautious voices aren’t exactly dismissing the Red Raiders.
Phil Steele has Texas Tech at No. 13, while Athlon Sports keeps the defending Big 12 contender outside the top 10 following several major offseason departures.
Texas Tech has the depth, financial backing and overall roster strength to overpower most of the Big 12.
The Red Raiders enter the season with more preseason All-Big 12 selections than any other team in the conference, a running game capable of controlling Saturdays and a defense with legitimate top-five national potential.
But the departures of quarterback Brendan Sorsby, linebacker Jacob Rodriguez and edge rusher David Bailey created three enormous holes.
Rodriguez and Bailey left for the NFL, while Sorsby’s unexpected exit changed the entire conversation surrounding an offense built to compete immediately.
Everything now points toward Will Hammond.
The talented quarterback is expected to start the season opener, provided his recovery from a torn ACL remains on schedule.
That qualifier is the difference between Texas Tech being a dangerous playoff team and becoming a legitimate national championship threat.
The Red Raiders don’t need Hammond to carry a weak roster.
Their defense and running game should provide one of the highest floors in the country. They do, however, need him healthy and dangerous enough to punish elite opponents when postseason games become quarterback battles.
That’s where national analysts remain hesitant. Texas Tech has enough talent to win the Big 12 and reach the 12-team College Football Playoff, but it hasn’t yet earned the same title credibility as Ohio State, Texas, Oregon or Notre Dame.
McGuire’s program has spent enough to join college football’s upper class. The roster looks ready. The defense looks nasty. The expectations are enormous.
Now Texas Tech must prove it can beat elite teams outside its conference—and that Hammond’s knee won’t become the most important joint in West Texas.
