Texas Tech’s Soft Schedule Opens a Clear Road Back to the CFP

Texas Tech football has spent the offseason building a roster capable of bullying the Big 12.

Now, the schedule may have handed Joey McGuire’s Red Raiders the cleanest runway in the conference.

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CBS Sports analyst Brad Crawford ranked Texas Tech’s 2026 schedule among the easiest at the Power Four level, with only NC State facing a more favorable path. That label won’t guarantee anything, but it dramatically raises the stakes for a program coming off a Big 12 championship and a school-record nine NFL Draft selections.

The Red Raiders won’t face BYU or Utah during the regular season. Houston appears to be the only opponent likely to begin the year nationally ranked, and that matchup comes at home on a Friday night.

Texas Tech also welcomes Arizona, West Virginia and TCU to Lubbock. Its road schedule features Oregon State, Colorado, Arizona State, Cincinnati, Oklahoma State and Baylor.

There are potential traps in that group, but there isn’t an obvious national powerhouse waiting to derail the season.

That means anything short of another serious championship run could feel like a missed opportunity.

The biggest concern remains quarterback Will Hammond. Texas Tech lost Brendan Sorsby before he ever played a snap, making Hammond’s health one of the most important variables in the Big 12 race.

Recent reports have created optimism that Hammond will be ready when the schedule becomes more demanding, but the Red Raiders can’t afford instability under center.

Once healthy, Hammond adds a rushing threat Texas Tech didn’t consistently have with Behren Morton. Pair that mobility with Cameron Dickey, J’Koby Williams and Quinten Joyner, and the Red Raiders could own one of the league’s deepest backfields.

Micah Hudson is another potential difference-maker. His talent has never been questioned, and an encouraging spring performance may have provided an early glimpse of the breakout season Texas Tech fans have been waiting for.

Defensively, McGuire must replace an entire NFL-bound front and leading tackler Jacob Rodriguez.

Ben Roberts and John Curry should stabilize the linebacker group, while Trey White, Adam Trick, Austin Romaine and AJ Holmes headline a rebuilt front seven loaded with options.

Of course, a manageable schedule can become dangerous when a team starts believing its own hype.

Florida State’s recent collapse showed how quickly preseason confidence can turn into humiliation, regardless of how favorable the road appears.

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Texas Tech still has to earn every win. But with an aggressive transfer-portal haul, a championship-tested staff and no regular-season date with the Big 12’s two Utah powers, the Red Raiders have no excuse to hide.

The schedule is soft. The expectations shouldn’t be.