UCF's March Madness hopes hinge on Big 12 Tournament success. A single win could secure their bid, but losses might send them to the First Four.
After UCF's three-game losing streak to end the season, the Knights' March Madness standing, which once seemed absolute, has become more of a question mark.
Monday afternoon, the Orlando Sentinel's Matt Murschel dropped big news via X about what UCF needs to do to secure an at-large bid.
"Just got off a conference call with ESPN bracketologist Joe Lunardi, who said #UCF should be safe for an NCAA tourney bid with a win in the Big 12 tourney and 2 wins would help them avoid Dayton and the First Four," Murschel wrote.
According to Murschel, the Knights' destiny may also be out of their control depending on how the conference tournaments shake out.
This is not promising for a UCF squad that was basically a shoe-in to make the tournament less than three weeks ago, but provides a clear path to finally securing the bid.
According to ESPN's Bubble Watch, UCF has seen its chances of making the Big Dance drop by 20% following the skid.
"A third straight loss -- and sixth in nine games -- for UCF, by 15 points at West Virginia in Friday's regular-season finale, has left the Knights' tourney fate much more in doubt than it seemed not long ago," ESPN writer Neil Paine wrote. "Once upon a time, they peaked as high as 96% in the at-large model consensus, but now that number is 76% -- barely in "Should Be In" territory."
Lunardi reportedly agreed with this sentiment on Murschel's call, saying "If you were to ask me a power conference team that seems to be safe that wouldn't make it, it would be a coin flip between SMU and UCF."
The Knights will need to win their first game of the Big 12 Tournament to once again feel comfortable about their chances, lying in wait for the winner of Cincinnati vs Utah Tuesday evening.
The Knights have familiarity with both of these teams, facing them earlier in the season. UCF won its lone contest with Utah, while splitting the season series with Cincinnati. For more information about the Utes and Bearcats and how the Knights fared against them previously, check out this article about UCF clinching the final first round bye.
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