The Only Poll That Matters To USC Football Opens Today

The first College Football Playoff rankings will be released later today, and the USC Trojans are hoping to put themselves in position to earn their first playoff berth when the 12-team field is announced on Sunday, December 6.

While the AP and Coaches Polls haven't exactly shown the Trojans much love in 2026, the CFP selection committee will have a different task: figuring out which version of USC is the real one. The team that stumbled on the road against Wisconsin, or the team that just dismantled the No. 2 Ohio State Buckeyes?

One performance raised questions about USC's playoff credentials. The other gave the committee plenty to think about.

So, just how high will the Trojans appear when the first CFP rankings are released later today?

The better question might be: Where will Ohio State be ranked? Because that will tell us a lot about where USC's lot in life begins.

If the committee is doing its job, it should be difficult to justify ranking Ohio State ahead of USC. The Trojans have a 7-2 record compared to the Buckeyes' 6-2 mark, and, more importantly, USC owns a 12-point head-to-head victory.

On the other hand, it's going to be difficult to justify putting USC ahead of Ohio State when comparing the quality of each team's two losses.

That's where things get interesting. How much weight will the selection committee give the AP and Coaches Polls when forming its own rankings? Will those polls influence its thinking, or will the committee take a deeper look at each team's body of work?

Ultimately, either USC is going to come in higher than expected, or Ohio State is going to fall further than expected.

There are currently 10 two-loss teams ranked between No. 9 and No. 21 in the AP Poll. That's a lot of parity, which means who you beat is going to matter. And USC has one of the best victories among that group with its win over Ohio State.

This is where strength of schedule gets put under the microscope.

Will the committee lean heavily on the human polls as a starting point, or will its members peel back the layers and make their own assessment of each team's résumé?

If the Trojans win out, they'll finish 10-2 and should be in an excellent position to earn a playoff berth.

However, we're dealing with human beings, and human beings come with biases. Just a few years ago, the committee left an undefeated Florida State team out of the playoff after the Seminoles lost starting quarterback Jordan Travis to a season-ending injury late in the regular season.

So, for the record, I have the Trojans showing up at No. 14 in the first CFP rankings.

And with Indiana and UCLA still looming among USC's final three games, the Trojans have an opportunity to strengthen their résumé and put themselves in an excellent position to make the final 12 when the playoff field is announced on December 6.