USC Should Think Twice Before Contemplating Firing Lincoln Riley

Patience is wearing thin for Lincoln Riley to return USC to national contention.

But with a 24-team College Football Playoff on the horizon, should athletic director Jennifer Cohen be willing to give him more time?

Riley arrived in Los Angeles with plenty of hype after leading Oklahoma to three College Football Playoff appearances in five seasons.

After three coaching hires failed to live up to expectations, Riley's hire brought renewed hope and a belief that he would be the guy who would finally turn USC back into a consistent national contender.

In his first four and a half seasons, Riley has failed to live up to those expectations.

Heading into the season, his tenure was still without a conference championship or a College Football Playoff appearance.

After a 24-7 loss to Wisconsin Saturday night, it doesn't look like 2026 will end any differently from his previous seasons.

“We really just lost to Wisconsin,”Keyshawn Johnson said. “Lincoln Riley I respect you but it just ain’t working out. Tough decisions have to be made USC.”

The Trojans came into the season with high expectations, ranked 14th in the AP preseason poll.

But after an early home loss to Oregon and another defeat on the road against Wisconsin on Saturday night, Riley's Big Ten road record has fallen to 4-7. This has given critics more reason to question whether he is the right coach to restore USC to its former glory.

Some are even suggesting that USC should pay Riley’s roughly $70 million buyout and move in a different direction.

“Riley’s buyout is still enormous (a little north of $70 million), and even if a lot of USC folks are skeptical that he’s the guy to lead the Trojans, it’s still a huge financial issue,” Bruce Feldman wrote. “The buyout, though, is still going to be massive a year from now.”

With three games against AP top-10 teams, No. 2 Ohio State, No. 4 Indiana, and No. 7 UCLA, the Trojans must win all three games.

The pressure could boil over to a point where it's going to be hard to ignore.

It’s easy to spend someone else’s budget, but it could set USC back years if they don’t make a change. 

For Cohen, the decision is far from simple, as the financial consequences of moving on from Riley make it a difficult choice.

But is the ship making a turn which could change all of that.

 If yes, it certainly could buy Cohen and Riley more time?

That change: the College Football Playoff potentially expanding to 24 teams.

If Riley can win three of USC’s final four games and climb back into the top 20, it would give the Trojans three top-20 finishes in five seasons under his leadership.

That could give the administration the ammunition it needs to convince donors that sticking with Riley is the right decision despite the early setbacks.

With a 24-team playoff potentially giving USC a more forgiving path to the postseason, the administration could argue that firing Riley now would mean accepting the financial cost of a coaching change without knowing whether a replacement could deliver better results.

The Grass Isn’t Always Greener; Ask Penn State

After leading Penn State to the College Football Playoff semifinals the previous season, James Franklin failed to deliver similar results, prompting the university to move on from him.

A year later, entering Week 9, the Nittany Lions are still searching for their first conference win.

The Playoff has little to do with benefiting the game and everything to do with making money.

While expansion is often presented as a way to allow more programs to compete in the Playoff, the opportunity it really creates is a lucrative one for networks.

“The bottom line is money,” Nick Saban said. “That’s the bottom line. You explained it.”

And for a brand like USC, that could make all the difference.

Even with three or possibly four losses, the expanded Playoff would give USC a chance to reach the postseason.

The Trojans’ massive fanbase and national following make them an attractive brand for television networks, giving USC a case for being included even with four losses.

That is where Riley could benefit.

Although Riley has yet to replicate his success at Oklahoma, an expanded playoff field would give him a more forgiving path to the postseason.

As a result, he could ultimately be judged on whether he can win enough games to get the Trojans into the Playoff and not on whether they truly are national championship contenders.

In an era where winning is expected instantly, the expanded playoff field could have come at just the right time for Riley.

Rather than paying a roughly $70 million buyout and starting over, USC could give him more time to prove he can return the program to national contention.

With an expanded playoff potentially offering a more forgiving path to the postseason, it should give Cohen a reason to wait before deciding on Riley and the significant financial consequences that come with it.