Toronto just dropped two of three against the Yankees in the Bronx as New York pulled within two games of the Jays in the American League East. Here's how things shape up for the two teams down the stretch as they battle for the division title.
The Toronto Blue Jays just dropped two consecutive games to the New York Yankees at Yankee Stadium, and they now hold just a two-game lead on New York as they chase their first division title since the 2015 campaign.
If the Jays are going to win the American League East, there are several factors at play, so let's take a look:
Strength of schedule
According to Tankathon, the Yankees have the fifth-easiest schedule in the league remaining, with only six games against teams over .500. They'll get three with the Tigers and three with the Red Sox, but they also have three with the White Sox, three with the Twins and seven with the last-place Orioles.
The Blue Jays? They have the 12th-hardest schedule left, as they've got three with the Red Sox, three with the Astros and three with the Royals. And while they have seven against the Tampa Bay Rays, they are just one game under .500, making for no easy task.
Advantage: Yankees
From Tankathon
From TankathonTiebreakers
The Blue Jays won the season series against the Yankees 8-5, meaning that the two-game lead is effectively a three-game lead, which makes a great deal of difference with less than 20 games to play.
April 25: Blue Jays 4, Yankees 2
April 27: Yankees 5, Blue Jays 1
April 27: Yankees 11, Blue Jays 2
June 30: Blue Jays 5, Yankees 4
July 1: Blue Jays 12, Yankees 5
July 2: Blue Jays 11, Yankees 9
July 3: Blue Jays 8, Yankees 5
July 21: Blue Jays 4, Yankees 1
July 22: Yankees 5, Blue Jays 4
July 23: Blue Jays 8, Yankees 4
Sept. 5: Blue Jays 7, Yankees 1
Sept 6: Yankees 3, Blue Jays 1
Sept. 7: Yankees 4, Blue Jays 3
Advantage: Blue Jays
What the odds say
If you are in to these kind of things, Fangraphs has the Blue Jays at a greater than 66 percent chance to hang onto the division crown, while the Yankees have a less than 30 percent chance of coming back to reclaim it.
It might not be your favorite thing, but positive affirmation is always a good thing down the stretch in a pennant race. However, Jays fans won't like that the Yankees are listed with a better World Series chance...
Advantage: Blue Jays
X-factor
The Blue Jays are set to send slugging outfielder Anthony Santander out on a rehab assignment on Tuesday. He hasn't played since May because of a lingering shoulder issue, and while he hit only .179 in 184 at-bats before going on the shelf, he has the potential of being a game-changer in the Jays lineup if he's healthy now.
He did hit 44 home runs for the Orioles last season, and as a switch-hitter, he makes matchups even better for the Jays. It's unclear if he'll come back and be able to make an impact, but his presence looms large down the stretch.
Advantage: TBD.
Up next
The Blue Jays begin a series with the Astros on Tuesday night at 7:07 p.m. ET while the Yankees play Tuesday against the Tigers at 7:05 p.m. ET.