In the past 50 years, the favorite team in the NCAA Tournament championship game has won and covered a whopping 30 times, a 60 percent win rate. Upsets are rare, with the underdog winning outright just 12 times. That says a lot about UConn's chances as a 7.5-point underdog on Monday night.
INDIANAPOLIS, Ind. — We're down to two teams in the 2026 NCAA Tournament, and we'll determine a champion on Monday night when the Michigan Wolverines take on the Connecticut Huskies for all the marbles.
Michigan, which walloped fellow No. 1 seed Arizona 91-73 on Saturday night, is a 7.5-point favorite according to the Fanduel.com gambling website. UConn, which upset Illinois on Saturday, has its hands full.
How so? Well, in the past 50 NCAA Tournaments — going back to 1975 since we didn't have a tournament in 2020 — only three underdogs with longer point-spread odds have won the title. Those would be long-shot darlings Villanova over Georgetown in 1985, Kansas over Oklahoma in 1988 and Connecticut over Duke in 1999. (There's a fourth — 1983 N.C. State over Houston — that's worth a mention, too. The Wolfpack were 7-point underdogs.)
All these records say that the Huskies don't have much of a chance against Michigan. But you have to factor in UConn's own success rate to know they have a chance. UConn won national titles in 2023 and 2024. Michigan hasn't won since 1989, and is 1-5 all time in title games.
"Yeah, you go through your process of preparation at this point. Every team has some vulnerabilities. No teams are perfect. Again, it's not like we're not playing a best-of-11 or best-of-seven,'' Connecticut coach Danny Hurley said Sunday. "Both teams have a short turnaround. We're basically going to get probably two times on the court to walk through some things, a bunch of video sessions to try to prepare to take away the strengths of each team, and it's going to come down to who plays better on Monday night.
"Underdog? I don't know that we necessarily feel like a huge, huge underdog. Obviously we acknowledge Michigan's greatness and the team that they are, but we're a 34-win team coming into the game on (Monday) night.''
Since the 1975 NCAA Tournament, the favorite and covered a whopping 30 times in 50 events, a 60 percent coverage percentage. A true underdog hasn't won since Baylor upset Gonzaga in 2021. The favorites — Florida last year and UConn twice before that — have won and covered in each of the last three tournaments.
"In 2024, you know you have the best team, but there is a certain level of pressure that comes with it,'' Hurley said. "It's like when you get to the Final Four and you know you have the best team, that was a different level of pressure than in 2023 where we weren't really sure. It was our first time. We weren't sure we were the best team in '23, we were just trying to win the next game.
"But in '24, yeah, it was different. It was different. Now, facing that Purdue team, Purdue's team that year was a pretty excellent team, too, with Zach Edey and Braden Smith, one of the best point guards of all time,(Trey) Kaufman-Renn. That was a loaded, loaded Purdue team that we beat. That was a pressure that I felt, when you get to the Final Four and you know you've got the best team. Yeah, there's some pressure to that. But there's also some pressure even if you're, whatever the underdog we are because we're one game away from having a national championship with this team. Both coaches, both teams definitely feel the pressure going into Monday.''
Michigan is a heavy favorite for a reason. They have played 14 ranked teams this season and have a 12-2 record. Their average margin of victory in those 12 wins is more than 18 points per game.
Monday's game starts at 8:50 p.m. ET and is televised on TBS.
Here's the complete list of how the last 50 national champions have fared against the point spread thanks to the great research at Covers.com.
Favorites won and covered (30)
2025 — Florida Gators defeated Houston Cougars 65-63 as a 1.5-point favorite.
2024 — Connecticut Huskies defeated Purdue Boilermakers 75-60 as a 7-point favorite.
2023 — Connecticut Huskies defeated San Diego State Aztecs 76-59 as a 6.5-point favorite.
2019 — Virginia Cavaliers defeated Texas Tech Red Raiders 85-77 as a 1.5-point favorite.
2018 — Villanova Wildcats defeated Michigan Wolverines 79-62 as a 6.5-point favorite.
2017 — North Carolina Tar Heels defeated Gonzaga Bulldogs 71-65 as a 1-point favorite.
2013 — Louisville Cardinals defeated Michigan Wolverines 82-76 as a 4-point favorite.
2012 — Kentucky Wildcats defeated Kansas Jayhawks 67-59 as a 6-point favorite.
2011 — Connecticut Huskies defeated Butler Bulldogs 53-41 as a 3-point favorite.
2009 — North Carolina Tar Heels defeated Michigan State Spartans 89-72 as a 7.5-point favorite.
2007 — Florida Gators defeated Ohio State Buckeyes 84-75 as a 4-point favorite.
2006 — Florida Gators defeated UCLA Bruins 73-57 as a 1.5-point favorite.
2005 — North Carolina Tar Heels defeated Illinois Fighting Illini 75-70 as a 2-point favorite.
2004 — Connecticut Huskies defeated Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets 82-73 as a 5.5-point favorite.
2002 — Maryland Terrapins defeated Indiana Hoosiers 64-52 as an 8-point favorite.
2001 — Duke Blue Devils defeated Arizona Wildcats 82-72 as a 4-point favorite.
2000 — Michigan State defeated Florida Gators 89-76 as a 4-point favorite.
1998 — Kentucky Wildcats defeated Utah Utes 78-69 as a 3.5-point favorite.
1995 — UCLA Bruins defeated Arkansas Razorbacks 89-78 as a 3-point favorite.
1993 — North Carolina Tar Heels defeated Michigan Wolverines 77-71 as a 2-point favorite.
1992 — Duke Blue Devils defeated Michigan Wolverines 71-51 as a 6-point favorite
1991 — Duke Blue Devils defeated Kansas Jayhawks 72-65 as a 3-point favorite.
1990 — UNLV Runnin' Rebels defeated Duke Blue Devils 103-73 as a 4-point favorite.
1984 — Georgetown Hoyas defeated Houston Cougars 84-75 as a 4-point favorite.
1981 — Indiana Hoosiers defeated North Carolina Tar Heels 63-50 as a 2-point favorite.
1980 — Louisville Cardinals defeated UCLA Bruins 59-54 as a 2-point favorite.
1979 — Michigan State Spartans defeated Indiana State Sycamores 75-64 as a 5.5-point favorite.
1978 — Kentucky Wildcats defeated Duke Blue Devils 94-88 as a 4.5-point favorite.
1976 — Indiana Hoosiers defeated Michigan Wolverines 86-68 as a 5-point favorite.
1975 — UCLA Bruins defeated Kentucky Wildcats 92-85 as a 1.5-point favorite.
Favorites won, didn't cover (8)
2022 — Kansas Jayhawks defeated North Carolina Tar Heels 72-69 as a 4.5-point favorite.
2010 — Duke Blue Devils defeated Butler Bulldogs 61-59 as a 7-point favorite.
2003 — Kansas Jayhawks defeated Syracuse Orangemen 81-78 as a 5-point favorite.
1996 — Kentucky Wildcats defeated Syracuse Orangemen 76-67 as a 14-point favorite.
1994 — Arkansas Razorbacks defeated Duke Blue Devils 76-72 as a 5-point favorite.
1989 — Michigan Wolverines defeated Seton Hall Pirates 89-79 as a 2.5-point favorite.
1987 — Indiana Hoosiers defeated Syracuse Orangemen 74-73 as a 4-point favorite.
1982 — North Carolina Tar Heels defeated Georgetown Hoyas 63-62 as a 1.5-point favorite.
Underdogs won (12)
2021 — Baylor Bears defeated Gonzaga Bulldogs 86-70 as a 4.5-point underdog.
2016 — Villanova Wildcats defeated North Carolina Tar Heels 77-74 as a 2-point underdog.
2015 — Duke Blue Devils defeated Wisconsin Badgers 68-63 as a 1-point underdog.
2014 — Connecticut Huskies defeated Kentucky Wildcats 60-54 as a 2.5-point underdog.
2008 — Kansas Jayhawks defeated Memphis Tigers 75-68 as a 2-point underdog.
1999 — Connecticut Huskies defeated Duke Blue Devils 77-74 as a 9.5-point underdog.
1997 — Arizona Wildcats defeated North Carolina Tar Heels 84-79 as a 6.5-point underdog.
1988 — Kansas Jayhawks defeated Oklahoma Sooners 83-79 as an 8-point underdog.
1986 — Louisville Cardinals defeated Duke Blue Devils 72-69 as a 1.5-point underdog.
1985 — Villanova Wildcats defeated Georgetown Hoyas 66-64 as a 9.5-point underdog.
1983 — North Carolina State Wolfpack defeated Houston Cougars 54-52 as a 7-point underdog.
1977 — Marquette Warriors defeated North Carolina Tar Heels 67-59 as a 3-point underdog.