A data-driven simulation projects a dominant 13-win regular season for San Francisco, but a blockbuster trade could spark a heartbreaking divisional round upset by a division rival.
The San Francisco 49ers are seeing playoff hype for the upcoming season. One metric has the Niners winning the NFC West with a 13-4 record.
ESPN NFL analyst Seth Walder took one Football Power Index (FPI) simulation of the NFL season and shared its results. The simulation had the Niners capping a 13-win season with a win over the Arizona Cardinals. Here's what Walder shared on the potential result.
"The NFC West boasts three of FPI's top five teams entering 2026. Those preseason expectations came to fruition in simulation 9,187.
Through 12 weeks, the Seahawks, 49ers and Rams were each 9-2 -- with only three of those six combined losses coming to teams outside the division! Fast forward to Week 18, with the 49ers and Seahawks entering their finales tied at 12-4 and the Rams one game back at 11-5. But the Rams came out firing in Week 18, blowing out the Seahawks 37-8. The 49ers destroyed the last-place Cardinals 30-3, securing not only the division but also the No. 1 seed in the NFC. Seattle and Los Angeles had to settle for the No. 5 and No. 6 seeds, respectively.
So that had the 49ers feeling good entering the playoffs. Was this the year Kyle Shanahan and San Francisco would get over the Super Bowl hump?"
The simulation did not yield a San Francisco Super Bowl. Walder shares that the simulation had the 49ers losing to a familiar foe in the NFC Divisional Round.
"(A Rams win) set up a third meeting against the 49ers with the season on the line. San Francisco swept the first two, but this one became the Myles Garrett game. The superstar pass rusher delivered 2.5 sacks and deflected a pass that was intercepted. It was just enough, as the Rams prevailed over Brock Purdy and the 49ers 24-21 to advance to the NFC Championship Game."
Aug 27, 2026; Paradise, Nevada, USA; San Francisco 49ers quarterback Mac Jones (10) throws a pass against the San Francisco 49ers during the first half at Allegiant Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Christopher Trim-Imagn ImagesAn NFC Divisional Round loss to the Rams would not be a satisfactory end to the NFL season. Even so, it is a possibility.
The Rams have been as much a mainstay in the NFL playoffs as the Niners have been in recent years. The addition of Myles Garrett only makes them even more serious of a contender.
Nevertheless, a 13-win season that ends in the divisional round seems more a result fit for the Dallas Cowboys than the 49ers in recent years.
The regular season simulation is encouraging. If the 49ers can win 13 games with their loaded schedule, they should be able to hang with anybody when they reach the playoffs.
The Niners' road to the playoffs begins on Wednesday night against the Los Angeles Rams in Australia.
