With three weeks left in the AFC playoff race, division titles and top seeds hang in the balance. Who secures the No. 1 overall seed, who wins the four divisions and who snags one of those three wild-card spots. It's going to be a wild chase to the finish line.
The clock is ticking on the 2025 NFL season, and we're 15 weeks in now with just three weeks to go. There are division titles, No. 1 seeds and playoff spots still to be earned in the AFC playoff race.
I think we're pretty well set on the seven teams that will advance to the postseason, but there's still a lot at stake.
With three weeks left in the regular season, here are our top-seven seeds in the AFC playoff chase, who still has a chance and who's home for the holidays.
Let's take a look by seed, and what lies ahead for each team.
1. Denver Broncos (12-2)
How they're in: First place in AFC West, best overall record in AFC.
What the division looks like: Denver has a two-game lead on the Los Angeles Chargers with three to play, but they meet in Denver the final week of the season and the Chargers presently hold the tiebreaker thanks to a Chargers win over the Broncos on Sept. 21. Denver has won 11 games in a row, including last Sunday's huge showdown against Green Bay.
Who's left on the schedule: Dec. 21 — Jacksonville at Denver, 4:25 p.m. ET. Dec. 25 — Denver at Kansas City. Jan. 3/4 — LA Chargers at Denver, TBA.
Prognosis: For as good as they've been, there is still a lot of work to be done to win the AFC West and earn the No. 1 seed — and bye that comes with it. Jacksonville might be just as hot, winning five straight by a margin of 19.8 points per game. They don't want to go into that final weekend where a loss to the Chargers would kick them into the wild-card. But I think they win the next two and make the final week irrelevant.
2. New England Patriots (11-3)
How they're in: First place in AFC East, second-best overall record in AFC.
What the division looks like: The Patriots had won 10 games in a row before losing at home to Buffalo last weekend, and now they have just a one-game lead in the division. They are underdogs this Sunday, too, in a big showdown with the Ravens in Baltimore where there's a lot at stake for both teams. The Patriots will be favored in their final two games.
Who's left on the schedule: Dec. 21 — New England at Baltimore. Dec. 28 — New England at NY Jets. Jan. 3/4 — Miami at New England.
Prognosis: If the Bills are going to win out, then the Patriots need to do the same to win the division. They've been the story of the year under first-year coach Mike Vrabel and quarterback Drake Maye is a legitimate MVP candidate. I can see them winning out and keeping the No. 2 seed. The key is winning in Baltimore, the toughest of their last three.
3. Jacksonville Jaguars (10-4)
How they're in: First place in AFC South, third-best overall record in AFC.
What the division looks like: Jacksonville has a one-game lead on Houston, and is up two games on Indianapolis. Hanging on to that lead won't be easy though, not with back-to-back road games at Denver and Indianapolis.
Who's left on the schedule: Dec. 21 — Jacksonville at Denver. Dec. 28 — Jacksonville at Indianapolis. Jan. 3/4 — Tennessee at Jacksonville.
Prognosis: Jacksonville has won five in a row, but this is a tall task to win out. Denver is playing great and the Colts at home, with their season on the line, won't be easy, either. Finishing 12-5 and tied with Houston means a wild-card game based on tiebreakers. But the Jags do have this advantage: At least they control their own destiny.
4. Pittsburgh Steelers (8-6)
How they're in: First place in AFC North, fourth-best record among division leaders.
What the division looks like: The Steelers got a huge win at Baltimore two weeks ago, and still hold a one-game edge on Baltimore. They have the tiebreaker for now too, but play the Ravens again in Week 18.
Who's left on the schedule: Dec. 21 — Pittsburgh at Detroit. Dec. 28 — Pittsburgh at Cleveland. Jan. 3/4 — Baltimore at Pittsburgh.
Prognosis: There's a veteran coach (Mike Tomlin) and a veteran quarterback (Aaron Rodgers) here, so high-stakes games won't be overwhelming, even for a team with some flaws. Their easiest path to the playoffs is by winning the division, not the wild-card, and they're just better than the Ravens — and have an easier path. They win the AFC North, and get a home playoff game.
5. Los Angeles Chargers (10-4)
How they're in: Top wild-card team, wins tiebreaker vs. Buffalo with best conference record.
What the division looks like: The Chargers trail Denver by two game, but beat them earlier this year and would have the tiebreaker if that Week 18 game matters.
Who's left on the schedule: Dec. 21 — LA Chargers at Dallas. Dec. 27 — Houston at LA Chargers. Jan. 3/4 — LA Chargers at Denver.
Prognosis: The Chargers have won three straight and six of seven, but this is a daunting schedule to close out the season. I feel like they're a lock to make the playoffs, but where they get slotted in the playoff pecking order might change. They're losing at least once, maybe twice.
6. Buffalo Bills (10-4)
How they're in: Top wild-card team, wins tiebreaker with best conference record
What the division looks like: They are breathing down New England's neck now, but they still need the Patriots to lose one more game. That's out of their control.
Who's left on the schedule: Dec. 21 — Buffalo at Cleveland. Dec. 28 — Philadelphia at Buffalo. Jan. 3/4 — NY Jets at Buffalo.
Prognosis: The Bills were my pick to win the Super Bowl this year, and I thought it was because they could finally get past Kansas City. Well, the Chiefs are already eliminated, and no team — or their psyche — benefits more than the Bills. Buffalo fans will be rooting hard for the Ravens this weekend to beat the Patriots. That would open the back door to a division title if the Bills win out, which I think they will.
7. Houston Texans (9-5)
How they're in: Top wild-card team, wins tiebreaker with best conference record
What the division looks like: They trail Jacksonville by a game.
Who's left on the schedule: Dec. 21 — Las Vegas at Houston. Dec. 27 — Houston at LA Chargers. Jan. 3/4 — Indianapolis at Houston.
Prognosis: Nobody wants to play the Houston Texans right now. They are playing great football, having won six in a row. Their defense is playing lights out, the best in football. I can see them winning out and passing Jacksonville for the division title, their third in a row.
Teams still in the hunt
Indianapolis Colts (8-6): The Colts have lost four in a row and have turned to 44-year-old Philip Rivers at quarterback. They don't have what it takes to beat out this group ahead of them.
Baltimore Ravens (7-7): The Ravens' best path to the playoffs is to win the AFC North, which is still a valid possibility since they play the Steelers in the final week of the season.
Teams that are eliminated
Kansas City Chiefs (6-8), Miami Dolphins (6-8), Cincinnati Bengals (4-10), New York Jets (3-11), Cleveland Browns (3-11), Las Vegas Raiders (2-12), Tennessee Titans (2-12).