Despite a division title and a historic playoff run, Chicago lands at No. 16 as analysts claim Caleb Williams and a turnover-dependent defense overachieved last season.
The Chicago Bears are fresh off a trip to the Divisional Round in the playoffs.
Up until last season, the Bears hadn't been to the playoffs since 2020. Chicago also won the NFC North for the first time since 2018, and won a playoff game, breaking a losing streak dating back to 2010.
After all of the growth that this franchise showed last season, you would think that the NFL FPI Rankings would give the Bears a favorable ranking. You would have been wrong to think that.
The first NFL FPI Rankings of 2026 came out on Wednesday, and the Bears were at No. 16. There were no typos in the previous sentence. The Bears are No. 16 to start the year.
The teams ahead of the Bears are the Denver Broncos, New England Patriots, Houston Texans, Cincinnati Bengals, Dallas Cowboys, Philadelphia Eagles, Kansas City Chiefs, Detroit Lions, Los Angeles Chargers, Green Bay Packers, San Francisco 49ers, Seattle Seahawks, Baltimore Ravens, Buffalo Bills and Los Angeles Rams.
Out of the 15 teams ahead of the Bears, four of them had a losing record last season.
The most egregious part of the rankings was that the Packers were ahead of the Bears, despite Chicago beating them twice, once in the regular season and again in the Wild Card round.
The Bears don't even have the best chance of making the playoffs in their own division, according to the FPI Rankings. The Bears have a 46.5% chance, compared to the Lions' 68.4%.
ESPN's Seth Walder shared that the FPI took into account the Bears' first-place schedule and metrics reflecting how inconsistent the defense was last year.
"Chicago broke through last season, going 11-6 to win the NFC North and adding its first playoff win in 15 years," Walder said. "But the numbers suggest the Bears overachieved. They ranked seventh and 19th in offensive and defensive EPA per play, respectively, but that defensive number was entirely reliant on turnovers. Chicago's defense ranked 30th on non-turnover plays. Plus, while quarterback Caleb Williams delivered repeated jaw-dropping plays, he also ranked only 16th in QBR. The Bears might show growth in 2026 and become the Super Bowl contender their fans hope for them to be. But the FPI does not see that as a likelihood because of the combination of last season's metrics and the first-place schedule they'll face in 2026. Chicago is a light underdog to make the playoffs (46.5%) and has only a 19.4% chance to win the NFC North -- roughly half of the Lions' chances."
Chicago does face division winners like the Eagles, Carolina Panthers, Bills, Patriots and Jacksonville Jaguars. So, there's a chance for the Bears to prove themselves this season.
Despite that, the Bears already proved they can hang with the best teams in the NFL in 2025. Chicago beat the Eagles at Lincoln Financial Field in Week 13 and then narrowly lost to the 49ers in Week 17.
The Bears' defense got an overhaul this offseason, losing Kevin Byard, Jaquan Brisker, Tremaine Edmunds and Nahshon Wright. To make up for those losses, the Bears added Coby Bryant and Devin Bush in free agency.
Even after all the strides the Bears made last season, it seems the NFL isn't ready to take them seriously. Apparently, winning the division and reaching the postseason isn't enough.
Time for the Bears to prove themselves once again in 2026.
