Despite a top-tier offensive resurgence and a division title, Chicago remains an underdog. Armed with defensive reinforcements, the Monsters of the Midway aim to defy skeptical projections.
The Chicago Bears had an incredible turnaround in just one season with Ben Johnson as head coach.
He took over a team that was one of the worst offenses in the NFL the year before he arrived. Caleb Williams was also the most sacked quarterback in the league and barely had time to make any plays.
That all changed with Johnson.
The offense became one of the top units in the NFL last season, with a top-three rushing offense and a top-15 passing offense. The Bears also scored the ninth-most points per game (24.4).
The defense? It's safe to say that it needed some work.
The Bears were ranked 11th in passing yards allowed (239.2), sixth in rushing yards allowed (134.5) and 10th in points allowed per game (24.4).
Regardless, the Bears made a run in the playoffs to the Divisional Round. They won the NFC North for the first time since 2018, and Soldier Field even hosted a playoff game with the Green Bay Packers coming to town.
The Bears beat the Packers, took the Los Angeles Rams to overtime, and came very close to clinching a spot in the NFC Championship Game, losing by a field goal.
I think most Bears fans would agree that was a successful season, considering the franchise hadn't been to the playoffs since 2020, let alone win the division in nearly 10 years.
Apparently, this isn't enough to earn respect from ESPN's FPI, which revealed every NFL team's chances of winning their respective division.
In the NFC North, the Detroit Lions had the highest odds of winning at 38.2%. In second were the Packers at 32.8%, followed by the Bears at 19.4% and the Minnesota Vikings at 9.6%.
The Bears have made improvements on multiple positions yet can't be taken seriously.
Chicago will have two new safeties in Coby Bryant and Dillon Thieneman. Bryant is a proven veteran, and I agree that Thieneman is mostly unproven since he's a rookie, but his versatility in college should him good in the NFL.
Then the Bears found the perfect replacement for Tremaine Edmunds in Devin Bush, who has been proficient as a tackler and in coverage throughout his career. Just last season, he had 125 total tackles, three interceptions, two sacks and seven TFLs.
The pass rush remains the biggest enigma heading into 2026, but ESPN's Courtney Cronin believes the Bears are banking on their secondary being much improved.
Both Kyler Gordon and Jaylon Johnson missed significant time and could benefit the pass rush if they stay healthy and keep opposing quarterbacks guessing with strong coverage.
The offense hasn't had much change outside of D.J. Moore and Drew Dalman. The Bears return most of the starters on the offensive line and have D'Andre Swift and Kyle Monangai back after leading the charge in the third-best rushing offense in the league.
It's wild to me that the Lions are favored after a last-place finish in the division. Plus, the Packers had their chance to win the division last year and lost it after falling to the Bears in Week 16.
Green Bay also lost defensive coordinator Jeff Hafley to the Miami Dolphins' head-coaching vacancy and has hired Jonathan Gannon, who had disappointing defenses during his time with the Arizona Cardinals.
The Packers' defense is sure to regress with that hire.
The only thing I agree with in the FPI division predictions is that the Vikings have the worst odds.
We've seen this Bears team defy the odds before, and it seems that they may have to prove the doubters wrong again in 2026.
