The Buffalo Bills could make the playoffs by winning the AFC East with a win over the Miami Dolphins or potentially miss the playoffs entirely with a loss.
The Buffalo Bills faced an uphill climb with five weeks left in the season to get back into the playoff picture. After four-straight wins, the Bills are set to face the Miami Dolphins on Sunday in a winner-take-all battle for the AFC East crown at 8:20 p.m. ET at Hard Rock Stadium.
However, even with the Bills (10-6) riding a hot streak into Week 18 and having a 94 percent chance to make the playoffs by ESPN's analytics, there's still a scenario where they can miss out on the postseason with a loss.
And it's more likely than one would think.
The potential nightmare scenario comes down to the results of the Pittsburgh Steelers (9-7) vs. Baltimore Ravens (13-3), Houston Texans (9-7) vs. Indianapolis Colts (9-7) and Jacksonville Jaguars (9-7) vs. Tennessee Titans (5-11). If the Steelers win, Texans vs. Colts doesn't end in a tie, and the Jaguars beat the Titans, Buffalo would need a win over the Dolphins (11-5) to reach the postseason. A Bills loss in that situation means they would miss the playoffs entirely.
Baltimore doesn't have any incentive to play its starters after clinching the AFC North and No. 1 seed in the conference with a 56-19 win over the Dolphins. The winner of Houston vs. Indianapolis automatically clinches a playoff spot and could win the AFC South with a Jaguars loss, though they will be heavily favored against a Tennessee team that has lost three-straight games and could be without rookie quarterback Will Levis due to a foot injury.
Jacksonville clinches the AFC South with a win on Sunday.
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Even with Buffalo's recent run, the playoffs aren't guaranteed heading into Week 18. The Bills may very well find themselves in a situation where they have to win the AFC East to reach the playoffs for a fifth straight season, though if you told them they would be in this situation four weeks ago, they would undoubtedly take it.
