The Bills are still likely to make the playoffs, but their chances did drop after Week 12.
The Buffalo Bills are still more likely than not to make the playoffs this year, but their chances took a pretty big hit after Week 12's AFC games wrapped up.
Not only did the Bills lose to Houston on Thursday night in a game that felt like a must-win to keep pace in the division, but none of the games on Sunday went their way.
Before getting to the updated odds, let's go into the games that were important and their results.
In the division, the New England Patriots took on the Cincinnati Bengals. In a game that Buffalo needed to see the Patriots lose to have any likely chance at the division, the Bengals managed to jump out to a 10-0 lead. But then, they remembered they're the Bengals and gave that lead up. New England would win 26-20, and moved 2.5 games up on Buffalo in the AFC East with six games to go.
Another game in the division involved the New York Jets. While their standing doesn't matter, they played a Baltimore time rising up the standings after starting 1-5. As expected, the Ravens took care of the Jets to move to 6-5 and into tie for first in the AFC North with the Pittsburgh Steelers. Why a tie, you ask? Well, the Steelers---Buffalo's next opponent---lost to the Chicago Bears to fall to 6-5. That put them outside of the playoffs while the Ravens jump to fourth in the AFC.
Elsewhere both the Jacksonville Jaguars and Kansas City Chiefs won to keep the conference in a log jam. The Chiefs win puts them a game behind the Bills while the Jaguars moving to 7-4 sees them jump over Buffalo for the sixth spot in the AFC.
That means that as of now, Buffalo is in seventh in the conference, and only a game up on Pittsburgh, Houston, and Kansas City. Buffalo lost the head-to-head matchup, and the tiebreaker, to Houston while having it over the Chiefs. In Week 13, the Bills have a chance to get another tiebreaker against the Steelers.
What Are The Bills' Playoff Chances?
With all the results known now, what are the chances the Bills still make the NFL Playoffs this year?
Overall, they're still pretty good. They have the fifth-highest percentage in the AFC at 83%, according to the New York Times (NYT) Playoff Simulator. The next closest team to them are the Chiefs at 67% followed by the Chargers at 63%.
So, barring continuing disappointing performances over the next six weeks, Buffalo should still at least make it to wild card weekend. Should that happen, it's almost all but certain at this point to be on the road. After Sunday's games, Buffalo has just a 7% chance of winning the AFC East and, somehow, a 3% chance to get the number one seed.
That means, for the first time since the 2019 season, the Bills will be on the road for the opening round. A reminder, they haven't won a road playoff game in 32 years and have just three road playoff wins in franchise history.