With Week 18 approaching, the Buffalo Bills’ likely playoff opponents are coming into focus as the team prepares for its first road postseason opener since the 2019 season.
The final week of the 2025 NFL regular season is here, and there's finally a bit of clarity surrounding the Buffalo Bills' path in the playoffs. While seeding hasn't officially been set, the Bills do know that they will be playing on the road during wild card weekend.
It's the first time since the 2019 season that the Bills won't start the playoffs at home. New England gets that privilege after clinching the AFC East thanks to Buffalo's 13-12 loss to Philadelphia. But just because the Bills know they have to start the playoffs on the road---where they haven't won a playoff game in over 30 years---that doesn't mean they know who they're facing.
As play enters Week 18, there are six possibilities for Buffalo. Starting with who it won't be, there's no chance for the Bills to face the Chargers as Los Angeles is already locked into one of the wild card spots as well. Everyone else, however, is up for grabs.
According to current projections from PlayoffStatus.com, the Jacksonville Jaguars sit at the top of the list of possible opponents, with a 58% likelihood. At 12-4, Jacksonville sits atop the AFC South heading into the final week. With a win over the Tennessee Titans, they'll clinch the division along with, at worst, the 3rd seed in the conference.
The Jaguars have been one of the AFC’s steadier teams, winning seven in a row. A matchup would mean a trip to a tough environment against a balanced roster that can win in multiple ways. Jacksonville also has a 2-0 record against the Bills in the playoffs.
The Patriots, who currently hold the No. 2 seed at 13-3, come in next at 13%. A postseason rematch in Foxborough would add another chapter to a familiar rivalry, it would also be the first time the teams have met in the playoffs since the "Perfect Game" in 2022 where the Bills won 47-17.
The Steelers, currently fourth at 9-7, are close behind at 12%. That matchup would bring a physical, defense-first opponent that tends to thrive in ugly January games. It would also likely be the closest to a first-round home game the Bills would get as Pittsburgh is only a four-hour drive away.
The Broncos, tied with New England at 13-3 and holding the top seed, still sit at a 10% chance. If they lose to the Chargers on Sunday, New England will earn the No. 1 seed while Denver would fall to No. 2. Should it be the Broncos, it would be a rematch of last year's Wild Card game, but, this time, it would be in Denver.
Rounding out the rest of the opponents are Baltimore at 6% and Houston at 1%. For many Bills fans, those are the two matchups they want to avoid as much as possible in the first round.
No matter how it shakes out, the message is clear: the Bills will have to earn everything the hard way. There will be no home-field comfort to start the playoffs, and, depending on seeding, likely no home game at all. There's also no easy matchup waiting. Just a road test where the Bills have just three wins in franchise history during the postseason.