Oddsmakers are betting on Josh Allen to defy history in a Week 1 showdown, favoring Buffalo’s revamped leadership despite the Texans' recent dominance over the Bills.
Vegas believes in Buffalo.
The games don't start for nearly four more months, but that doesn't mean it's too early to predict what could happen this season for the Buffalo Bills.
Shortly after the 2026 schedule was announced, sportsbooks published their first odds for all of the games. With the Bills traveling to Houston to face the Texans in Week 1, it was going to be interesting to see how the books viewed the team this year.
Based on the opening numbers, they still have faith in Josh Allen.
Schedule Release 2026 | When Do The Bills Play?
Depending on where you look, the Bills are slight favorites against the Texans. Most books have the Bills ranging from -1 to -2.5 favorites as of writing. If you are looking just at the moneyline, the Bills range from -120 to -112 favorites.
Again, it's slight, but it shows that there is a belief that any team with Allen at quarterback will have a chance.
Of course, that's what the sportsbooks think. History, however, shows a different result. The Bills and Texans have played in each of the last two seasons. In both games, Houston used a big first half to build a lead and hang on for the win.
With a new head coach in Joe Brady and a new defensive scheme under Jim Leonhard, oddsmakers are betting that won't happen again.
Looking at the point total, it sits around 44.5-45. That puts the game script at 23-22 for the Bills. And the total seems fair based on history, as well. None of the last five meetings between the two teams has reached the 45-point total. The closest that it's come was Houston's 23-20 win in 2024.
As training camp begins in July and preseason games kickoff in August, the numbers are expected to shift. So, don't be surprised if, by the time Week 1 comes, Houston is favored at home.
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