An NFL analyst predicts the Bills will swap their first-round pick for significant draft capital, targeting a later selection to address team needs.
With a new coaching staff and system in place, the 2026 NFL Draft is shaping up to be one of the biggest in recent years for the Buffalo Bills.
Whether it's adding to the wide receiver room or improving the defense, there are plenty of options for general manager Brandon Beane and the Bills. Of course, there's also another option, and that's trading the pick. And for one NFL analyst, that's exactly what he thinks the Bills could do.
In a new mock draft for NFL.com, Next Gen Stats Research and Analytics writer Mike Band took a look at team needs, scheme fits, market clues, and front-office tendencies when making his decisions. He also used "NFL IQ powered by Amazon Quick" to, as he put it, "pressure-test team needs, draft capital, and realistic outcomes."
When it came to Buffalo and pick 26, he doesn't have the Bills making a pick. Instead, it's a draft-day trade with the Arizona Cardinals, who use that selection to draft a quarterback.
Band says Arizona is "firmly in the market" for a quarterback, and that a move back up to draft Alabama's Ty Simpson would "align with the growing smoke around his fit in Mike LaFleur's offense."
As far as Buffalo is concerned, Band calls them a strong candidate to move back in the draft for two reasons. The first is the fact that they don't have a second-round pick this year after trading it to acquire wide receiver DJ Moore. The other reason is that Buffalo ranks 27th in draft capital over the next two years.
What Would A Trade With Arizona Look Like?
As of writing, Buffalo has six picks in this year's draft: one first, one third, one fourth, two fifths, and a seventh. Arizona, on the other hand, has seven picks, one in each round.
In the second round, Arizona picks 34th overall.
For Buffalo to move back, it would start with that pick coming back, which would be an eight-position drop. If we were to utilize the NFL Draft value chart—Yes, many view it as outdated, but it's still a good basis for these types of hypotheticals—we could see how this deal would shape up.
Now, first things first, it's unlikely the Bills would be able to get a 2027 first in the deal. The 26th overall pick has a value of 700, whereas a mid-to-high first, where Arizona is likely to pick again next year, has a value of 1,000 or more.
Instead, you are looking at the Bills trading back to 34 and receiving extra capital this year or next outside of the first round.
Sticking with just 2026 for this scenario to get close to even value, Buffalo could move back to 34 and pick up pick 65 in the third round. Value-wise, it's 700 going out and 825 coming in. It's a slight overpay on Arizona's part, but if they truly want to get a potential quarterback of the future, it's a realistic possibility.
Other options, if Buffalo wanted more than two picks in return, they could move back to 34 and pick up 104 (4th round) and 143 (5th round). That has a value of 680, which is less than 700 but brings two extra picks instead of one.
As with all possible trades, it's pure speculation until a deal happens. But that doesn't mean it's not fun to talk about.
The 2026 NFL draft takes place from April 23-25.
Bills Roundtable also offers a fan community and message board. We’d love to have you join us to talk all things Bills. Click the “Join” button at the top of the page to join our community for free.