The path remains unlikely, but the Buffalo Bills still have an outside chance of getting the AFC's Number One Seed. It's just going to take a lot of help.
The Buffalo Bills are heading the playoffs for the seventh straight season. And believe it or not, they still have a path to the No. 1 seed in the AFC, but it's one that requires both perfection on their end and plenty of help from around the league.
First and foremost, the Bills have to take care of their own business. That means winning their final two games of the regular season, starting with Sunday against the Philadelphia Eagles before closing the year at home against the New York Jets. Neither game is a give as Philadelphia is one of the most complete teams in the NFL, and division games have a habit of being tighter than expected. Still, if Buffalo wants to keep even the faintest hope of the top seed alive, these are must-win games.
From there, the scoreboard watching begins.
In Week 17, the Los Angeles Chargers would need to lose to the Houston Texans. That result would be significant, as it would knock the Chargers back in the AFC standings and open the door for Buffalo to climb higher to, at least, the fifth seed. At the same time, the Jacksonville Jaguars would need to drop at least one of their remaining games against either the Indianapolis Colts or Tennessee Titans. Jacksonville currently sits ahead of Buffalo as the AFC South leader, so any slip-up by the Jaguars is critical for the Bills’ chances.
Of course, the New England Patriots also factor into the equation. Buffalo needs New England to lose one game against either the Jets or Miami Dolphins to give the Bills a chance at a sixth straight AFC East title.
Finally, in Week 18, the Denver Broncos would need to lose to the Chargers. That result would further shuffle the AFC playoff picture and help clear the way for Buffalo to move into the top spot.
So, to recap, this is what Buffalo needs:
- Wins against the Eagles and Jets
- Chargers lose to the Texans in Week 17
- New England lose one game (Jets, Dolphins)
- Jaguars lose one game (Colts, Titans)
- Chargers beat Broncos in Week 18
If all of that sounds complicated, it's because it is. The Bills’ route to the No. 1 seed involves multiple teams, multiple weeks, and no margin for error. Buffalo can only control two of those results, and even those come against opponents that won't make it easy.
That's why this scenario, while technically possible, remains highly unlikely. The Bills are much more realistically fighting for playoff positioning and momentum rather than the top seed. Still, as long as there is a path on paper, it exists, and in the NFL, strange things have happened before.