The Buffalo Bills own the AFC's highest Super Bowl odds in ESPN's latest Football Power Index projections for the 2026 NFL season.
The Buffalo Bills are Super Bowl favorites in 2026. That statement shouldn't come as a surprise to anyone following the NFL.
Despite continuously falling short over the years, Buffalo enters this season with a newfound belief under first-year head coach Joe Brady. Pair that with a new defensive philosophy under new defensive coordinator Jim Leonhard, and there's plenty of reason to believe in the Bills this year.
And not only do sportsbooks believe in the team, but so does ESPN's Football Power Index (FPI).
In its projections for the 2026 season, ESPN's FPI, which measures a team's strength and uses it to forecast season results, has Buffalo as the most likely team in the AFC to win the Super Bowl. In fact, the FPI has Buffalo as the second-ranked team heading into the year, behind only the Los Angeles Rams.
According to the FPI, the Bills have a 19.0% chance of making the Super Bowl and a 10.7% chance of winning the whole thing. The Baltimore Ravens are a close third at 9.4%, while the next-closest AFC team, the Kansas City Chiefs, is seventh at 4.9%.
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"It doesn't take much creativity to put the Bills in the title game," ESPN says. "Josh Allen is arguably the best quarterback in the league, and Buffalo easily could have made the Super Bowl in recent seasons."
As far as matchups go, the most likely is the Bills against the Rams at 4.8%. The next likely matchup involving Buffalo is against Seattle at 2.6%.
Since Allen was drafted in 2018, the furthest the Bills have gone in the playoffs is the AFC Championship Game. In both attempts, the team lost to the Chiefs.
If they are finally going to get to the big game this year, they'll not only have to get through Kansas City, but likely a rejuvenated Baltimore team, along with the defending AFC champion New England Patriots.
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